Ukrainian Lawmaker On The Provocation Against Latvia: It's A Litmus Test
- 7.10.2026, 12:20
The hybrid attacks by Lukashenko and the Kremlin call for a strong response.
A dangerous incident occurred on the border between Latvia and Belarus. Armed, masked men attempted to push a group of migrants into Latvian territory. They then crossed the border themselves, threatened Latvian military personnel, damaged equipment, and took surveillance cameras.
What was this, and how should this incident on the Latvian-Belarusian border be interpreted? The website Charter97.org posed these questions to Oleg Dunde, a member of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine from the “Servant of the People” party Oleg Dunda.
— First of all, this demonstrates the Baltic states’ inability to defend their borders. This applies not only to Latvia but also to Lithuania. A similar incident occurred just recently in Lithuania, after which the head of the border guard service was fired. At that time, Lithuanian border guards were unable to defend the border and retreated in the face of a group of 20 unarmed migrants. Now, essentially, the same thing has happened.
As for the goals of Belarus and Moscow, from my perspective, this is a test of the Baltic states’ capabilities and reactions to aggressive actions. It’s a litmus test: they’re seeing how the Baltic states will react so they can plan their next steps.
— What other provocations might Putin and Lukashenko be planning in the near future?
— Anything at all. We need to understand that, as of today, the Baltic states are a battlefield. It is precisely on this basis that we must forecast future events and plan the actions of the government agencies of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.
— How should the EU and NATO respond to such hybrid attacks by the Kremlin?
— There is only one answer. Given that Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia occupy a very specific geographical position and have unreliable, limited logistics in wartime, there is only one option. We need to start building up military forces in this region right now. We must demonstrate that NATO countries are prepared for any aggression from Russia.
If we fail to do this and instead try to defuse the situation by saying that “we will not provoke,” then this is, in essence, an encouragement to the aggressor. It is an invitation to a new provocation.