Andrei Sannikov: NATO Can Quickly Rein In An Aggressor
- 7.10.2026, 15:37
The Lukashenko regime is carrying out orders from the Kremlin at the EU's borders.
On the border between Latvia and Belarus, a new dangerous provocation has been reported. A group of migrants was attempted to be directed toward Latvian territory by armed, masked men. They threatened military personnel and later crossed into Latvia, damaged border infrastructure, and took surveillance cameras.
How should this incident on the Latvian-Belarusian border be interpreted? The website Charter97.org spoke with the leader of the “European Belarus” civic campaign, Andrei Sannikov, about this:
— This is an episode of Russia’s hybrid war against European countries. It should be viewed not as a provocation against Latvia as a single European country, but as a provocation against NATO. Lukashenko is playing the role of a puppet here: he is carrying out Putin’s orders, who hopes to weaken European support for Ukraine by escalating provocations, hybrid attacks, and subversive activities. He and his officials are stating this almost openly.
— What pressure points of the Lukashenko regime can the West target in response to such actions?
— The European Union has a whole arsenal of tools at its disposal to exert pressure and prevent such provocations. As always, there is a lack of political will.
To begin with, Belarus is a bottleneck for transport flows, which is important not only for Belarus but also for Russia and China. Restrictions in this area can rein in the aggressor fairly quickly.
Europe reacts very weakly to such acts of sabotage, and strong statements about increasing pressure to prevent provocations somehow end up amounting to a creeping recognition of the dictator Lukashenko.
And any indecision or steps toward recognizing the regime result in more aggressive behavior on the part of the regime. This is basic logic, and it encourages dictators to take harsh actions against democratic states around the world.
— Should we expect further escalation, and how can it be prevented?
— Escalation is already underway. Let’s recall that in June of this year, there was a major provocation on the border between Belarus and Lithuania, also involving migrants. There have been other incidents as well. The main targets of this escalation are clearly the Baltic states—Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia—and, to some extent, Poland. But Poland is more of a test case to see what a major NATO member state might do and what measures it might take.
The Western intelligence community is speaking with growing alarm about scenarios involving an attack on the Baltic states in the near future, which is why we must act decisively today.
Escalation can be prevented through coordinated, decisive measures by NATO members against the aggressor and co-aggressor—that is, the regimes of Putin and Lukashenko. All the tools are available: military, political, diplomatic, financial, economic, legislative, administrative, logistical, and so on.