"Europeans Know Exactly Who Lukashenko Is"
- 8.10.2026, 9:37
The dictator's secret services are carrying out sabotage operations using Soviet methods.
The incident that occurred at the Belarusian-Latvian border involving migrants and armed, masked men who came from Belarus, damaged equipment, and returned there before border guards arrived, raises questions: where the red lines actually lie, how to interpret such provocations, and what Europe’s response to them might be.
“This is sabotage, and sabotage is also carried out by government agencies,” — says historian and political scientist Roza Turarbekova on “Euro Radio”. — They’re learning this (I think they’ve already learned it) from the Russians themselves. And they’re no strangers to it—after all, the KGB is still very much here, and the old Soviet manuals taught exactly that.
It’s another matter that in the past they may have held back because they wanted to maintain good-neighborly relations. But today—they’re doing everything they can to put pressure on the governments of Latvia and Lithuania so that they’ll follow the same path as, for example, the Polish government. That is, to engage in dialogue and insist on lifting sanctions against Belarus in order to overcome its transportation isolation.
Overall, these disruptive actions serve multiple purposes. Among other things, one can see here hybrid attacks against NATO member states in which the Russian Federation has an interest: to divert more and more attention and resources toward NATO’s eastern border, while leaving fewer resources and less aid for Ukraine.
Does this mean that Europe is losing to Lukashenko, that Belarusian potash will indeed be shipped to Klaipėda, and passenger trains to Warsaw?
“Wait, nothing has left yet,” Turarbekova interjects, cutting off the pessimists, “and Europe isn’t losing yet. But if that does happen—it’s certainly because there’s no unity between the U.S. and Europe.” It’s clear that the U.S. is playing its own game in its relations with Lukashenko, with Russia, and with Ukraine. And the gap between the U.S. and the EU’s approaches is widening.
Still, let’s see what happens next. Because the sanctions imposed against the Lukashenko regime—including those on potash—were imposed specifically by the EU. And lifting them requires a very complex procedure. I believe we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves in predicting how all this will end.
Besides, there are many additional factors. Europe is interested in a ceasefire in Ukraine. On the other hand, Europe faces quite a few other challenges—I’m referring to elections and the rise of far-right radicals to power, particularly in Germany. In other words, there’s a lot going on. But Europe is still holding firm and isn’t lifting the sanctions.
For now, <“talk of Belarusian potash”> is all just wishful thinking. But wishes are one thing, and reality is quite another. Europeans have no reason to trust Lukashenko, and trust is one of the most crucial factors in international politics.
In discussions about whether we can go back, so to speak, to 2019, the answer is unequivocal: we cannot.
The Poles, who initiated the so-called “mild thaw,” do not trust Lukashenko. They have their own interests; they need the the Americans establish a military base on Polish territory, so that there would be fewer attacks and Belarusian territory would not be used by Russia. But despite all this, they know exactly who Lukashenko is.
That is why they are approaching the <dialogue with Minsk>> so cautiously. A lot is probably happening behind the scenes, but so far there are no visible, serious results. Just talks and consultations. But at least, for now, there isn’t the same kind of chaos on the Belarusian-Polish border as there is on the Belarusian-Latvian border.
I wouldn’t rule out that this was a deliberate demonstration to make it clear to Latvia which path it “should take.”
Although, if we recall how Poland and Lithuania reacted to the migration crisis at their own borders: the former built towering fences, while the latter want to lay landmines along the approaches (as a reminder, in late 2025, Lithuania withdrew from the Ottawa Convention on the Prohibition of Anti-Personnel Mines—Ed.). And for Latvia, the border remains a weak spot because it lacks the resources that other countries have, and the infrastructure along the border itself is not very well developed.