Pentagon Analysts Have Published A Scenario For The Future: It Envisions Putin's Death
- 11.11.2026, 23:54
The Russian Federation's dictator is predicted to die as early as 2027.
The American think tank Rand Corp, which carries out contracts for the U.S. government and the Pentagon, has published a future scenario for Russia and NATO, in which it predicts the death of Russian dictator Vladimir Putin within the next three months. The document was reviewed by The Moscow Times.
In the RAND Corporation’s hypothetical scenario, 74-year-old Putin—who has ruled Russia longer than anyone since the time of Joseph Stalin—dies “of natural causes” in January 2027. He leaves behind a “power vacuum,” and in the struggle among the elites for the presidency, the intelligence services emerge victorious. In March 2027, the Kremlin announces a “former FSB general” as Putin’s official successor, according to the Rand report. Analysts emphasize that this is a “hypothetical scenario” and not a prediction of the future.
In April 2027, under the new president, Russia concludes a ceasefire with Ukraine in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions; however, peace talks reach an impasse by July, as the Kremlin’s goals have not changed: Moscow maintains its troops in the occupied territories and claims them as its own.
By January 2028, the new Russian president replaces Putin’s closest allies in the Kremlin with people loyal to him, but faces a growing economic and social crisis, partly due to losses in the war with Ukraine.
Lacking the same support base as Putin, he—according to the Rand scenario—falls under the influence of pro-war “hawks” demanding harsh measures against NATO. In that same year, 2028, Russia launches a hybrid campaign against European members of the alliance.
In the analysts’ scenario, the U.S. faces a crisis in South America in 2029, as the region is hit by a wave of violence and conflict. Counting on Washington being preoccupied with problems on its own continent, the Kremlin orders the launch of a military operation against Estonia.
According to the Rand scenario, it begins in May 2030. Leveraging its connections within the Russian-speaking community, Moscow organizes protests in Narva. These escalate into riots, which the Estonian authorities suppress by force. In response, the new Russian president sends troops into Narva under the pretext of protecting the Russian-speaking population.
Contrary to the Kremlin’s calculations, NATO responds by invoking Article 5 of its Charter and sends troops to defend Estonia. By June, full-scale combat operations begin between Russian forces and the alliance’s military, which, according to the RAND scenario, continue until October 2030. Russia intensifies acts of sabotage against Britain but carefully avoids Turkey, which, according to Rand, remains on the sidelines. Nevertheless, the conflict spreads, and cyberattacks and military operations affect NATO’s eastern and southern flanks.
A preliminary ceasefire in the Rand scenario takes place in November 2030, following several months of intense fighting. Europe, according to the analysts, is struggling to sustain its forces, and the new Russian president is facing domestic pressure due to his inability to quickly defeat Estonia.
After occupying Narva, he declares the operation complete and offers NATO a ceasefire. By January 2031, the truce remains in place, but peace talks have reached an impasse. “Faced with the prospect of yet another ‘frozen’ conflict and growing destabilization in Europe, NATO’s authority is undermined, leading to an uncertain and unstable security environment—as a result, the future of European security is called into question,” Rand concludes.