RAND: Putin Will Die In January 2027
- 12.11.2026, 8:56
A scenario for a war between Russia and NATO has emerged following the death of the Kremlin leader.
The American think tank RAND has released a report examining a hypothetical scenario of a war between Russia and Europe by 2030. According to this scenario, Vladimir Putin dies as early as January 2027. However, this does not prevent a military conflict between Moscow and NATO. In the scenario, the country is led by another high-ranking KGB officer, who in 2030 starts a war with Europe, writes “Agency”.
According to the RAND scenario, Putin dies of natural causes, after which a power vacuum forms in the country, and a struggle for power begins within the state apparatus. A former FSB general emerges victorious and becomes president by March.
️The new president attempts to consolidate his power and reshape the political system to suit his own interests. In April 2027, he agrees to a ceasefire in Ukraine, which is ultimately achieved through mediation by the U.S., the U.K., and other European countries in exchange for a partial lifting of sanctions.
️But Russia’s objectives in Ukraine remain fundamentally unchanged, and negotiations for a full-fledged peace reach an impasse. The war in Ukraine turns into a frozen conflict. After that, the new president orders the army to focus on restoring combat readiness.
️By January 2028, a purge begins within the government—the president starts replacing Putin’s closest allies with people more loyal to him. However, his power does not appear to be secure: against a backdrop of economic difficulties and the long-term social consequences of military losses in Ukraine, unrest continues in Russia.
️To bolster his authority, the new president launches a hybrid campaign against NATO countries. Part of this campaign involves spreading disinformation about the oppression of the Russian minority in Eastern Europe.
️In June 2029, a crisis erupts in South America, and the U.S. administration makes resolving it a priority, reducing its military presence in Europe. ️By early 2030, U.S. attention remains diverted, and the Russian president finds himself under increasing pressure from the military elite. The Kremlin begins working on a plan for more intensive hybrid attacks and limited military operations in the Baltic states. The goal of the campaign being developed is to demonstrate a lack of unity within NATO. Hybrid activity in Europe is rising sharply, and the number and consequences of incidents are increasing.
️In May 2030, Russia stirs up protests in the Estonian city of Narva—home to a large ethnic Russian population—which escalate into riots. Estonian authorities use force against the protesters. The Russian president declares that the Estonian authorities cannot be trusted to ensure the safety of Narva’s Russian population, and Russian troops begin an invasion of Estonia in the area around the city.
️The Russian president expects that NATO will not launch a full-scale military response. However, the alliance reacts immediately and invokes the collective defense clause.
️In June 2030, full-scale hostilities begin. Moscow poses a threat to Svalbard and northern Norway, while Russian submarines attempt to break through into the North Atlantic. Russia considers the United Kingdom a priority target and begins sabotage operations, cyberattacks, and airstrikes against the country. Air bases, ports, radar stations, and command centers become the initial targets.
️By November 2030, the Russian president faces domestic pressure due to his inability to achieve a quick victory. He declares the occupation of Narva and most of Ida-Viru County a victory and offers NATO countries a ceasefire. It is accepted, after which peace negotiations drag on for months.
️Analysts emphasize that their scenario is just one of several possible outcomes. Based on this scenario, they provide recommendations to the British government on how to stabilize the social situation, protect critical infrastructure, combat cyberattacks, prepare for space warfare, mobilization, and air strikes, as well as how to apply nuclear deterrence and bring the war to an end.