"This Has Never Happened In U.S. History."

• 3.11.2026, 13:45

A political analyst discussed the Democrats' chances of winning control of Congress and the implications for Ukraine.

On Tuesday, November 3, the U.S. will hold midterm elections will be held, which could prove to be a turning point for Donald Trump's second presidential term.

How likely is it that the Democrats will secure a majority in at least one chamber of Congress?

The website Charter97.org discussed this with renowned Ukrainian political scientist and head of the “Penta” Center for Applied Political Studies Volodymyr Fesenko:

— Forecasts, primarily from American sociologists and polling firms, agree that there is a very high probability (over 90%) that the Democrats will win a majority in the House of Representatives. This is almost certain, and the Democrats’ chances have increased in recent weeks.

Paradoxically, the Trump factor—given his active involvement in the election campaign—may have actually worked against the Republicans rather than helping them. But in any case, the Democrats are almost certain to win a majority in the House of Representatives; the question is exactly how many seats they will win and how comfortable their lead will be.

The situation in the Senate is more complicated, but judging by the latest polls, the Democrats have a chance of securing a majority there as well. The well-known British publication *The Economist*, which is closely monitoring the U.S. election, offers the following projections: 51 to 49—that is, 51 seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans. According to some other projections, the Democrats might even win slightly more—52 to 53 seats.

So there’s still some suspense surrounding the Senate, and, in fact, the main question on many people’s minds right now isn’t even who will win this election, but whether the Democrats will manage to secure a majority in both chambers, or only in the House of Representatives.

— How will Trump react to his party’s defeat?

— The fact is that there are risks, primarily regarding the Senate elections, that in races where the vote is roughly tied, the Republicans (with the White House’s support) will contest the results. There may be a risk of post-election conflicts—not only legal battles but also street clashes. According to some sources, preparations for this are already underway. In other words, there is a risk of crisis-level domestic political tensions in the U.S. following the election.

The confrontation may escalate not only between Republicans and Democrats, but also between Trump and his opponents. And Trump is preparing for this. He understands that he may lose at least the House of Representatives. He makes no secret of this and is preparing for a confrontation, for a post-election struggle.

— What are the risks here, not only for the U.S. but also, for example, for Ukraine?

— First and foremost, the fact that, of course, the intensification of the domestic political struggle in the U.S. could divert attention from the issue of U.S.-Ukraine relations and support for Ukraine. There may not have been full support in Congress, but there were a great many friends in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

We very much hope that the number of friends and supporters of Ukraine in the new Congress will be greater. If the Democrats gain support, they will more actively push, first and foremost, to maintain support for Ukraine, at least in its current form. This includes satellite intelligence, the Starlink and Starshield communications systems, and, of course, arms sales to Ukraine.

There is a risk that Trump, especially under pressure from the pro-Russian lobby in his inner circle, might blame Ukraine for the defeat. Russia is pushing this narrative, claiming that the Ukrainians’ strikes on oil refineries could have created such a situation. This is not true, but there is a certain risk here. Another problem that could arise is that after the election, in order to divert—let’s say—attention from his defeat, Trump might launch a military operation against Iran. Let me remind you that in January and February, the trilateral talks between the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia were suspended precisely because of the war with Iran. The talks are currently scheduled for November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. But if military action against Iran were to occur, Iran might retaliate, and then either the venue for the talks would have to be moved, or there could be another hiatus. But overall, Ukraine will certainly not interfere in the internal party struggle in the U.S.

It is important for us to maintain bipartisan support from the United States. People in Ukraine are eagerly awaiting the results of these elections. First and foremost, to understand—on a purely personal level, not just in terms of party affiliation—who will remain in the Senate and the House of Representatives, and who will lead the House.

In the Senate, the vice president serves as presiding officer, while in the House of Representatives, it will be the majority leader. It is very important who will lead the House of Representatives and who will head its key committees.

There may also be some changes in the Senate. Ukraine, accordingly, will structure its work with Congress depending on exactly who holds key positions in Congress. And, accordingly, there may be changes in the groups supporting Ukraine in both chambers.

— What risks does Trump face?

— If we’re talking about the main risk for Trump, losing control of at least one chamber will limit his power. First and foremost, it will reduce his influence over the budget process.

Members of Congress will have the opportunity to exert greater influence and pressure on Trump, both on personnel matters—especially through the Senate—and in the investigation of various questionable situations. Specifically, this includes the diesel fuel agreements, delays in aid to Ukraine, the satellite data issue, the Starlink situation, and so on. A number of senators and members of Congress have already stated that they will investigate these matters once both chambers resume their work.

This could help Ukraine and deter Trump from taking any overly drastic actions against our country. The budget issue is also important, as many members of Congress are calling for an increase in support for Ukraine, both in terms of financial aid and arms sales. So in this regard, we will monitor the situation and work more actively with the new Congress, but at the same time, one way or another, we will have to deal with Trump.

Another important point is the risk of impeachment. Since the Democrats are highly likely to hold a majority in the House of Representatives, there is a very high probability that there will be another attempt to impeach Trump.

In this regard, Trump will set a record for the number of impeachment attempts against him over the course of two presidencies. This is still just a possibility, but nonetheless. I’ll note right away that it’s unlikely Trump will be removed from office. That would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate. In other words, there are currently no conditions in place for a successful impeachment.

This has never happened in the U.S.: there have been attempts, but no U.S. president has ever been removed from office through impeachment. But, of course, in terms of reputation and politics, this will deal a severe blow to Trump. And, having lost control—especially if he loses control of both chambers at once—in the second half of his presidency, the U.S. president will, to a large extent, become, as Americans say, a lame duck.

His influence will be weakened. He will no longer have the unlimited influence over the U.S. federal system that he had in the past and this year. From this perspective, the congressional elections could indeed have a major impact on Trump’s position. And, ultimately, they could determine that his presidency ends under more difficult and problematic circumstances.