It Is No Accident That Moscow Started Scaring Lukashenko With "color Revolution"
- 14.02.2026, 21:06
There are two reasons for this.
Russia sends a signal that it will not allow democratization of Belarus, will oppose it by force, and is ready to fight the West for it. This reaction of Moscow is the result of the negotiation process between Minsk and Washington, as well as attempts to rally an alliance between Kiev and the Belarusian opposition. Political observer Valery Karbalevich writes about it in his column on the "Radio Svaboda" website.
February 9, the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) issued a statement warning that the West is once again preparing a "color revolution" in Belarus. February 12, this information was confirmed and developed by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova. At a regular briefing, she criticized the West, which allegedly seeks to separate Belarus from Russia.
Thereby, two Russian agencies (SVR and Foreign Ministry) have already issued a double warning against attempts of democratic transformation of Belarus. This can hardly be considered a coincidence. The Kremlin is setting accents and fixing its position.
It cannot be said that this is a fundamentally new line for Russia. But it seems to be the first time Moscow has raised the issue so categorically at the public level. The Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman rigidly links democracy with geopolitics. Zakharova does not hide the fact that democratic Belarus will not want to be in an alliance with Russia:
"A hypothetical coup d'état in the republic and the accession of Western agents to power there would certainly wipe out all the achievements of the integration construction of our 'union state' with Belarus...".
Therefore, the Kremlin does not intend to "sit back and watch all this." The main point of Maria Zakharova's statement is that Russia will not allow Belarus to democratize and will oppose it by force.
The second important thesis of Zakharova is translated into an understandable language. If the West tries to support democratic processes in Belarus, the Russian Federation is ready for war with Western countries, even with the use of nuclear weapons. Zakharova refers to the intergovernmental Treaty on Security Guarantees within the framework of the "Union State," which entered into force in March 2025, as well as the Russian document "Fundamentals of the State Policy of the Russian Federation in the Sphere of Nuclear Deterrence" dated November 19, 2024.
That is, the Russian conclusions look like this: if you want peace, then agree to a dictatorship, because the establishment of democracy here will lead to military conflict.
Naturally, the question arises: why is Moscow suddenly so excited? It would seem that no events or factors threatening the stability of Alexander Lukashenko's regime have appeared recently. Therefore, it is not quite clear where the Kremlin gets such fears and worries about Belarus.
It can be suggested that Moscow is concerned about two processes. First, it is the new relationship between official Minsk and Washington. As long as the dialog concerned the slow release of political prisoners in exchange for the easing of sanctions, Russia was calm about it. But the process of cooperation began to take some, albeit ephemeral, institutional forms (Peace Council), Donald Trump invited Lukashenko to the United States. Therefore, Moscow probably began to worry. This is indirectly evidenced by the following remark by Maria Zakharova:
"It is obvious that the Westerners have not given up their aspirations to tear our brotherly republic away from Russia by any means and are preparing for 'revenge', apparently waiting for a convenient moment...".
Secondly, this is Russia's reaction to the change in Ukraine's policy towards Belarus, to the attempts of an alliance between Kiev and the Belarusian opposition. Of course, everything that Vladimir Zelensky does causes strong allergies in Moscow... Recently, Zelensky started to actively appeal to Europe to support the Belarusian society in its struggle against the pro-Russian dictatorship.
All this together caused such a strong reaction in Moscow.
In Minsk, however, only propagandists reacted to these statements from Moscow. At the official level, the reaction is rather cold. After all, it's not very convenient to expose the intrigues and subversive actions of the West against Russia at a time when the Foreign Minister of Belarus is preparing for a trip to Washington.