What Surprised The Munich Report

• 14.02.2026, 21:06

The authors of the report urge Europe to act decisively.

"Destruction is coming." That's how the title of the Munich Security Report, launched on Monday, February 9, just days before the opening of a conference of the same name in Germany, can be translated. The elephant on the cover - the symbol of the U.S. Republican Party - is a hint at the main theme, the destructive policies of U.S. President Donald Trump, writes German Wave.

What will happen next in American and European relations after Trump's Davos speech and the crisis over Greenland? That promises to be the main topic at the forum in the Bavarian capital, which will bring together dozens of world leaders on February 13.

Europe without the American umbrella

The Munich Security Conference (MSC) is now in its 60s, but the annual reports are a relatively new phenomenon. It is the brainchild of its longtime and current chairman, former German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger. The 2026 report is one of the most pessimistic in recent years. While previous generations of U.S. allies could rely not only on "American strength" but also generally on a shared understanding of the principles of world order, this "seems much less" reliable today, Ischinger writes in his opening remarks. The report itself is more unambiguous: the "era" when Europe thrived under the American security umbrella is "over."

What's next? The report does not provide a clear answer, also because the American approach to European security is perceived as "unsustainable," oscillating between "support and coercion." But the outlook can be assessed pessimistically. One possibility is that the world could move toward a politics where "regional hegemons" dominate and "set the rules in their spheres of influence," the report said.

What the report says about Russia's war against Ukraine

Ukraine, against which Russia has been waging a full-scale war for nearly four years, is described in the report as "one of the first casualties" of a new type of world order. "Instead of treating it primarily as a matter of sovereignty and international law, the war is trying to be reformatted as a subject for negotiation by strong leaders, in which territory, security guarantees, and even natural resources become bargaining chips," the report said. Under these conditions, Europeans are forced to adapt, not to Russia, but to Washington. As the authors note, this requires concrete action, since "hope is not a strategy." In addition, "the confrontation over Greenland" showed the limits of attempts to adapt.

The topic of Russia's war against Ukraine is given less attention in the report this time than in previous years. Moscow shows no intention of ending the war, the authors state. They note that Europe continues to support Ukraine but is moving at different speeds; there are significant differences between the financially stronger countries in the northeast and southwest of the continent, where states cannot afford to increase defense spending. The failed attempt to use Russian assets frozen in the EU to help Kiev showed "the limitations of the collective European response in the face of Russian intimidation."

Security Index: Russia is less likely to be perceived as a threat

Despite what Europe calls intimidation attempts by Moscow, citizens in major Western countries seem to have become less fearful of the Russian threat overall. This was shown by the Munich Security Index (Munich Security Index) on risk perception in the world, which has been part of the report since 2021. This time representative surveys were conducted in November 2025 in 11 countries, which can be divided into two groups - G7 (leading industrial countries of the West) and BRICS minus Russia (Brazil, India, China, South Africa). Among the "risks" offered to choose from are both individual countries and economic, military or social factors, from disinformation to the use of nuclear weapons or food shortages. The index combines several indicators, ranging from a general assessment of risks to the willingness to confront them.

One of the main changes over the past year is that the perception of risks from the United States has increased in most G7 countries. It can be assumed that the figure would have been even higher if the survey had been conducted in January 2026, after the events in Venezuela and the crisis around Greenland.

The authors of the report draw attention to the fact that the perception of the threat from Russia in the eyes of respondents has significantly decreased. In the list of 32 "most serious risks" in the G7 countries, Russia dropped from the second to the eighth place. This result looks unusual, since the survey was conducted after Russian combat drones first flew into Germany's neighboring Poland in September 2025 and were shot down by NATO planes. At the same time, Russian fighter jets violated Estonian airspace, and alleged Russian drones first paralyzed several European civilian airports, including Munich. However, the risk of drone attacks or sabotage is not included as a separate issue in the Munich Index.

In absolute terms, Russia is still perceived as "a much greater threat than the United States," with almost all countries surveyed, the report said. The exceptions are China and India, where attitudes toward Russia are traditionally positive.

Of the G7 countries, the risks from Russia are most acutely perceived by residents of Germany - 71 points, although over the past year this indicator has decreased by seven points. In the risk rating, Russia is ranked fourth in the perception of Germans. The top three are cyberattacks, rising inequality and radical Islamic terrorism.

In general, speaking about the challenges facing Europe, the report's authors urge European countries to act more decisively and cite the example of certain groups they call "vanguard", such as the "Weimar Plus" format (France, Germany, Poland, Great Britain) or the "European Five" (the same plus Italy). Indecision would mean that Europe risks remaining "in a gray zone between competing spheres of influence," the Munich Security Report said.