ISW: Counterattacks By The AFU Thwarted Russian Plans
- 16.02.2026, 10:17
In two areas at once.
The troops of the aggressor country Russia are moving at a slow pace on the front in Ukraine, exceeding their "achievements", the collapse of the Ukrainian defense is not foreseen. This is according to a analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) on Feb. 15.
Russia's weekly gains between late November 2025 and mid-February 2026 fluctuated significantly. ISW estimates that at the peak of its advance, Russian forces captured 141 square kilometers in the week of January 25-31, but then the occupiers' advance fell to 74 square kilometers in the past week (February 8-14).
The Ukrainian defense forces liberated 106 square kilometers of territory in November and December, reducing the advance of Russian forces for several weeks in the directions of Kharkiv, Konstantinovka, Pokrovsk, and Novopavlovka. Ukrainian forces also liberated most of Kupyansk and its environs in late December, and Russian forces lost control of 305 square kilometers, ISW reported.
Analyses also record successful Ukrainian counterattacks and Defense Forces advances in Zaporizhzhya Oblast and on the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast admin border. Military observer Konstantin Mashovets reported the liberation of several small settlements along the Yanchur and Gaichur rivers in the directions of Oleksandrivka (Dnipropetrovsk region) and Gulyaypol (Zaporizhzhya region). Thus, the Defense Forces dislodged Russian troops from Alekseevka and Orestopol, and liberated Danilovka, Vishnevoye, Egorovka, Zlagoda and Rybnoye in Dnipropetrovsk region.
The Ukrainian troops also dislodged Russian troops from Ternovatoye and Kosovtsevo in Zaporizhzhya region, crossed the Gaichur River, and liberated Dobropillya (Zaporizhzhya region). Analysts record the de-occupation of Priluk and Yelenokonstantinovka, and there are battles for Varvarovka. According to military experts, Ukrainian counterattacks have almost halted the advance of Russian forces near Zheleznodorozhnoye.
In general, the Russian pace of advance in the Alexandrovskoye and Gulyaipolskoye directions has almost stopped since February 8 as a result of successful Ukrainian operations in several narrow sectors. Defense forces have pushed back Russian forces by 9-9.5 kilometers in some areas.
ISW stresses that Ukrainian forces are not conducting a counteroffensive, as the Russian military claims, but are counterattacking.