Another Round Of Talk Or The Beginning Of Action

• Petro Oleshchuk
• 16.02.2026, 11:34

Signals from the U.S. in Munich are mixed.

In mid-February 2026, the world's political elite gathers again in Munich. In the Bayerischer Hof Hotel, they discuss war-torn order, NATO threats, nuclear blackmail and Russian aggression. Formally, this is an "ordinary" Munich Security Conference. In fact, it is another attempt to answer the main question: whether the West will stay with Ukraine until the end, or will start preparing a "beautiful exit" from the war at the expense of Ukrainian interests.

This year's theme is related to the "destruction of the world order" (Under Destruction). Europe simultaneously fears a widening war, a possible reduction in U.S. involvement, and growing pressure from Russia and China. Against this background, talk of a "post-war security architecture" goes hand in hand with daily reports of missile strikes on Ukraine.

Ukraine is again at the epicenter of the discussions. Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky's speech in Munich is not a "diplomatic ritual," but an attempt to seize the initiative at a moment when some Western elites are leaning toward the idea of a "quick peace" at any price.

Zelensky's main accents in Munich-2026.

Ukraine will not sign a "peace for peace's sake." Only an agreement that will actually prevent a new war. For this, Kiev demands long-term, at least 20-year security guarantees from the United States and allies.

The president has explicitly warned that concessions of territory will not bring peace, just as the policy of appeasement of dictators in the 1930s did not bring peace.

Ukraine insistently demands a specific date for joining the European Union. The benchmark is 2027. On the margins of the conference, Kiev secured promises of new military and energy aid packages from European allies. With a specific deadline of "until February 24," the anniversary of the full-scale invasion. We are talking primarily about air defense missiles and support for the energy sector, which is experiencing massive strikes.

A separate line is the discussion of elections in Ukraine. Amid pressure from Donald Trump, Zelensky repeats in Munich that elections are possible, but only with a ceasefire and real security guarantees, not under volleys of Russian missiles. For Ukraine, this is fundamental. If we agree to elections under shelling, it will legalize Russia's right to dictate policy to Ukraine by threatening shelling.

Signals from the United States in Munich are ambiguous. On the one hand, there are assurances of the "historic alliance of the West," while on the other hand, the idea that America will not endlessly pay for Europe's security if Europe itself is not ready to invest is being repeated more and more frequently.

In parallel, political pressure on Kiev over negotiations and elections continues. Part of the American establishment repeats the message that Ukraine should compromise for the sake of "early peace" and hold elections to remove questions of legitimacy.

The Ukrainian side's response in Munich is built around three theses:

Peace is possible only after a ceasefire. Neither Zelensky nor other Ukrainian leaders are talking about capitulation or freezing the conflict "as is." The position sounds: first a ceasefire and real guarantees, and then elections.

Compromises at the expense of territories are unacceptable. The Ukrainian president's public statements in Munich are aimed at preventing the idea that "we can give a little bit of Donbass or Crimea and appease Putin" from taking hold.

Ukraine is ready for reforms and elections, but on condition of security. This is the answer to those who try to portray Kiev as a party holding on to power and covering itself with war.

It is vital for Ukraine to move this discussion from "concessions" to "guarantees": the question is not what Ukraine will give up, but what the West will do to prevent Russia from starting another war in a few years.

Munich-2026 shows the window of opportunity for Ukraine is still open. Europe and the US are so far willing to listen and support. But in parallel, the pressure of those who would like to "close the Ukrainian issue" at any cost is growing.

The extent to which Kiev will clearly articulate its interests (both in Munich and after it) will determine whether the current conference will be a step towards a just peace or another stage on the way to a new, much more dangerous round of war in Europe.

Petr Oleshchuk, professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, specially for Charter97.org.