Natallia Radzina: It Is Not For Nothing That Russia Started Talking About The Revolution In Belarus

• 17.02.2026, 18:44

Things could end quickly for Putin and Lukashenko.

What is behind Russia's statements about preparing a revolution in Belarus? Could Putin engage Lukashenko in a war against NATO countries? Why the next two years may become critical for the Russian and Belarusian dictators?

About this in the interview YouTube channel of well-known journalist Evgeny Kiselyov told the editor-in-chief of Charter97.org Natallia Radzina.

In Munich Security Conference report says Russia could attack one of the Baltic states within two years of a possible cease-fire in Ukraine. The attack would be launched from the territory of Belarus. Natallia Radzina believes that Putin may not wait for the war in Ukraine to stop:

- An attack on the Baltic States, including from the territory of Belarus, could take place just this year, and this is indicated by several signs.

The first of them is the statement of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service and Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova that a "coup" is allegedly being prepared on the territory of Belarus, with NATO countries "planning a color revolution." I think that this speaks not about Russia's desire to change the regime in Belarus, but about Russia's intention to deploy a significant number of Russian troops on the Belarusian territory. It is quite clear that neither Lithuania nor Poland are preparing any coups in Belarus today. Against the background of these statements, Russia will simply place tens, maybe even hundreds of thousands of Russian troops in the country.

Yes, there may be critical statements as to where the Russian Federation can get such a number of troops, given the losses suffered by the Russian army in Ukraine. But we see that there is a hidden mobilization in Russia, and it is not excluded that just by the beginning of the summer offensive, somewhere in May 2026, additional Russian troops may be deployed on the territory of Belarus.

The second point, which also alarms me, is the information from the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service that Russia has significantly increased the production of ammunition. In 2025, 7 million shells, missiles and mines were produced. That is, since the beginning of Russia's large-scale offensive in Ukraine, Russia's production of shells has increased 17 times since 2022. It is not only about the production of shells, because there are imports of ammunition from Iran and North Korea. As a result, Estonian intelligence suggests that this could be a signal that Russia is preparing for a new war.

Another point that also raises big questions now is whether Europe itself is ready for an attack by Russia. I know that at the Munich conference one of the leaders of the Russian opposition Garry Kasparov said that just this year there will be attempts to test the strength of Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

Natallia Radzina draws the attention of to The Wall Street Journal article on joint NATO and AFU exercises in Estonia:

- Ukrainian drone operators defeated several battalions of the NATO army within half a day. And we realize that neither Lithuania, nor Latvia, nor Poland, nor Estonia are ready for a drone attack today. If it is decided to launch 2,000 Russian drones into Lithuania, air defense systems, military facilities, and even decision-making centers will be knocked out very quickly.

This is actually a very alarming situation. I fear that Putin may seize the moment when Europe is not yet ready for defense and war with Russia. Trump, as we can see, is not rushing to help today, not only Ukraine. I'm not sure he will rush to the aid of his European partners. And in this situation, I think Putin will have the only opportunity for action just in this cadence of Trump.

Belarusian journalist urges NATO leadership to act preventively:

- It is necessary to say clearly and clearly that in case the Russian army tries to seize the Suva Corridor, tries to attack Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia or Poland, in this case there will be immediate missile strikes on places where Russian troops are gathered, on military facilities, as well as on Moscow.

I also paid attention to the words of German Chancellor Friedrich Merz regarding the fact that today Europe needs to develop its own nuclear deterrence programs. What does this suggest? It is quite possible that there will be modernization of nuclear arsenals in France, in Britain. Perhaps Germany itself will develop nuclear weapons. In this case, nuclear missiles should be placed on the borders with Russia and Belarus.

Natallia Radzina draws attention to the Kremlin's attempts to block YouTube and Telegram in Russia. In her opinion, this may indicate a possible escalation on Putin's part in the near future:

- As a journalist, I can say that for me blocking is always a sign that the authorities are preparing some abomination. It seems to me that the blocking of YouTube and Telegram should lead you to believe that Putin is preparing for an offensive. The question is, why would he do that now? I will tell you that Russia was preparing an attack on the Baltic States back in 2009, before the attack on Ukraine. In particular, such a scenario was worked out during the Belarusian-Russian exercises "Zapad-2009", which took place when I was still living in Minsk. The opposition then held protests against these maneuvers, many activists were arrested.

The scenario of the exercise "Zapad" was as follows: occupation of the Baltic States, nuclear strike on Warsaw. The Kremlin has been hatching such strategic plans for quite some time. Why would Putin want to do that? You should ask him. One of the reasons was given by the Ukrainian Institute for Black Sea Strategic Studies, which said that there is a high probability of a Russian attack on the Baltic states. The reason is changes in global politics. US President Trump has moved Putin to the background, and the Russian dictator has lost his status as a key figure in global geopolitics. Now he may go for some demonstrative forceful actions for the sake of restoring his image of an alpha leader. All the more so, realizing that Trump may not hinder him at all in these aggressive plans, and also realizing Europe's unpreparedness to repel these attacks. I think it's important here not to dismiss or say that "Putin doesn't have the strength." He is crazy enough to do it.

Evgeny Kiselyov points out that Western sanctions have caused serious problems in the Russian economy:

- We have repeatedly heard even from certainly anti-Putin, anti-war Russian economists that "let's not underestimate the potential of Putin's economy", that "it is not in such a bad state as they make it out to be". But notice that even they (I don't want to name any specific names right now) admit that they were wrong and overestimated the capabilities, resources and stability of the Russian economy. It seems to be heading for a serious crisis. This crisis may come, as the Washington Post wrote the other day, in just a few months. That is why sanctions are extremely important. Sanctions have been more effective than many people said.

Natallia Radzina agrees with the opinion that pressure on Russia is bearing fruit:

- Naturally, sanctions work over time. We cannot expect that having introduced sanctions today, we will feel their effectiveness tomorrow. Now, after several years, it is obvious that they are working.

Low oil prices, sanctions against Russia's "shadow fleet" and secondary sanctions imposed by the US are also working. If India refuses to buy Russian oil, it will be a huge blow to the Russian economy. Ukraine's strikes on Russian refineries and oil storage facilities are also extremely important. All of this is really bringing the Russian economy to a collapse. If 40% of the budget is spent on war, it will inevitably lead to disaster.

The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org notes that recently there have been calls for Europe to lift sanctions on Lukashenko's regime:

- Europe categorically states that the sanctions remain, although some representatives of the Belarusian opposition - Viktor Babariko and Maria Kolesnikova - call for their removal. Europe's position is certainly to be welcomed.

I note that in 2020, these people also took a loyal stance against Russia and dictator Lukashenko. Maria Kolesnikova herself said that she "did not intend to overthrow the tyrant, but simply participated in the election campaign". Many people have already forgotten that Viktor Babariko claimed that "Lukashenko honestly won all presidential elections until 2020." Both he and his chief of staff Kolesnikova repeated that "we can't get away from good relations with Russia, because we have a 'union state.'" They were extremely loyal to the Kremlin and Putin. This is not surprising, because Viktor Babariko has been heading the board of directors of Belgazprombank for 20 years. Who are the main shareholders of Belgazprombank? Gazprom and Gazprombank directly. Such a person cannot independently go and challenge the dictator Lukashenko, the main ally of the Russian ruler Putin. This is impossible to imagine in any fantasy.

In September 2020, when the first people were killed in the streets of Minsk and mass arrests had already begun, Maria Kolesnikova said that "it is too early to impose economic sanctions". Let me remind you that they have not been imposed for a criminally long time - until May 2021. If economic sanctions against Lukashenko's regime were to be introduced immediately - in August-September 2020 - it could significantly affect the situation in Belarus.

In fact, these people work for Lukashenko's regime. Today they call on European ambassadors to return to Minsk, which actually means the legitimization of Lukashenko, because they will present credentials to the dictator.

When asked about the mood in the Belarusian nomenclature, Natallia Radzina said that there is sabotage inside Lukashenko's regime:

- I think that Belarusian officials secretly wish for Russia's defeat in this war. Of course, Lukashenko personally realizes that a Russian defeat will lead to withdrawal of support from Putin, and he himself may lose power. As for the Belarusian nomenclature and business, I am almost 100% sure that they wish Ukraine to win, because they know very well that otherwise they will have to become another region of the Russian Federation, and they don't want that, because they will lose power immediately.

They sabotage integration with the Russian Federation as much as possible. However, while the war is going on and Russia is relatively strong, Belarusian officials are afraid to act more actively, but they are making some attempts to negotiate with the West, with the USA, albeit with Putin's permission.

Time is obviously on our side. Putin and Lukashenko will end physically, economically and militarily. I don't see Russia even having a few years. When you listen to Vitaly Portnikov, he suggests that Russia could be at war until 2030 and beyond. I don't think they have that kind of force reserve. A lot can be decided in the next year or two if there is decisive action from the West. Here I wouldn't write off Trump that he will work exclusively for Russia. Many are now predicting his defeat in the midterm congressional elections. A number of experts who are skeptical of the US president believe that on the eve of the election, Trump may act more decisively against Putin. After all, public opinion in the US is unequivocally on the side of Ukraine.

At the end, Natallia Radzina drew attention to Lukashenko's mental state. The dictator has been raising the Belarusian troops on alert for several weeks now, bypassing the General Staff and the Defense Ministry:

- Lukashenko is organizing all this commotion at various firing ranges of the country, because he is very scared of the US special operation in Venezuela. This is the only version of why there are surprise inspections in the Belarusian army. Lukashenko is afraid that he may be kidnapped at the residence in Drozdki and taken to The Hague, where he will have to answer for all the crimes.

By the way, there were speculations that Lukashenko didn't fly to Washington for Trump's "Peace Council" because he was also afraid that he might be arrested there. He has no trust in either the Europeans or the Americans. Such paranoia on Lukashenko's part.