"2025 Was A Watershed Year."
- 17.02.2026, 12:16
Russia today is actually in the so-called "death zone".
The Russian economy has found itself in a state from which it will be extremely difficult to get out without a new serious crisis. Alexander Prokopenko, a researcher at the Carnegie Berlin Center, writes about this in an article for The Economist.
Russia today is actually in the so-called "death zone" - in mountaineering, this is the name given to the altitude where the organism can no longer function normally due to a lack of oxygen.
The expert believes that the Russian economy is stuck in a state of "negative equilibrium". On the one hand, formally it continues to work and even shows a slight growth. On the other hand, this growth deprives the country of prospects in the future.
In 2025, the economy of the aggressor country added only about 1%, and forecasts for the current year look even weaker. At the same time, export revenues are declining, and it is becoming increasingly difficult to close budget holes at the expense of taxes.
According to Prokopenko, over the past four years, Russia's economy has actually split into two parts. The first is the military sector and related industries. That is where the main resources are directed: labor force, investments, import supplies.
These areas receive priority and continue to grow. The second part - civilian industries, small and medium business, consumer sector. They lack resources and are stagnating.
Total production in Russia has increased by more than 18% in three years. However, as the expert emphasizes, almost all of this growth is provided by military orders. The economy is increasingly dependent on the so-called "military rent" - budget injections into defense enterprises, which create jobs and support demand.
The difference with oil revenues of the past years is fundamental. Back then, the money came from outside by exporting raw materials. Now there is an internal redistribution of funds. In fact, the economy consumes its own resources without creating a stable base for future development.
Prokopenko notes that this is not an ordinary recession, which can be overcome by a mild policy adjustment. Rather, the situation resembles a real protracted crisis: the longer Russia remains in a state of war, the more difficult it will be to return to any kind of stability without painful consequences for the economy.