Putin Prepares Stealthy Draft Amid Insane Losses
- 19.02.2026, 11:53
ISW analysts have learned the details.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is creating information conditions for the restoration of a limited, rotating draft of reservists. In this way, the Russian Federation is trying to compensate for losses in the war against Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports.
Analysts note that a number of recent decisions by the Russian authorities are indicative of preparations to draft reservists.
On February 18, the Russian State Duma passed in the first reading a bill that would strengthen preventive measures against "evasion of the duty to defend the Fatherland." The document would likely give Moscow the ability to punish Russians who criticize the conscription of reservists.
Russia has also banned Telegram, which may be an attempt to limit criticism of the government.
ISW believes Putin wants to normalize limited, rotating conscription to maintain the size of the occupation army, so as not to conduct a partial mobilization, as in 2022, which resulted in as many as 900,000 Russians leaving the country.
The limited conscription will be designed to maintain the level of losses of Russian troops on the front, it will not aim to strengthen Russian troops with additional forces.
Analysts record that the Kremlin has been setting the stage for a phased compulsory conscription of reservists since at least October 2025, when the Russian government allowed reservists to be deployed on expeditionary missions outside Russia without officially declaring mobilization or martial law.
In November, Putin signed a decree allowing Russian military commissions to conduct conscription processes year-round. In December, the dictator approved a decree on mandatory conscription of reservists for "military training camps" in 2026, likely to secretly call up his strategic reserve.
Analysts say the Kremlin is preparing to forcibly draft a limited number of reservists "from a position of weakness" to compensate for the near exhaustion of its costly voluntary recruitment system in 2026.
In this way, Putin continues to seek a balance between "oil and guns" - the need to prevent popular discontent over large-scale mobilization, the need to maintain the momentum of the Russian offensive at the front, and the need to preserve manpower in both the civilian and defense-industrial complex.
The preparations for a limited draft are further evidence that Russia's ability to recruit volunteers to fight in Ukraine is slowing. The high human, economic and social costs of the war are forcing the Kremlin to make difficult choices.
The ISW notes that the Kremlin's efforts to prepare Russian society for a partial draft of reservists show that Putin now faces difficult choices in February 2026, four years after the war began.
The Kremlin is likely pressuring Ukraine to immediately concede to Russia's longstanding demands in peace talks to secure its military objectives without having to make uncomfortable sacrifices.