Politico: Putin Is At War Against Ukraine On The Micawber Principle
- 24.02.2026, 15:19
The Kremlin chief hopes that "something special" will happen.
The Russian war in Ukraine has turned into a grueling conflict in four years, which Putin is waging according to a principle similar to the method of the fictional character Charles Dickens' Wilkins Micawber: "something is bound to happen." Journalist and geopolitical columnist Politico Jamie Dettmer writes that.
Despite significant losses and limited resources, the Russian president continues to press on, seeking a big win for domestic political legitimization and support for the war economy.
Analysts note that Russian forces have advanced 4,700 km² over the past year, but have been unable to break through Ukrainian defenses in Donetsk and have been forced to retreat to Zaporozhye. A shortage of men, equipment and efficient logistical resources is limiting the offensive's potential.
In the meantime, Ukraine is facing a shrinking military due to desertions and unpopular mobilization. According to the Defense Ministry, some two million Ukrainians evade military registration, and more than 310,000 criminal cases for unauthorized absenteeism remain pending.
Experts point out that Russia is able to cover current losses but not increase the scale of the invasion. Ukraine, on the other hand, must survive on the battlefield, hoping for Russian attrition and Western pressure to force Putin to take negotiations seriously.
Former President Petr Poroshenko and opposition politicians warn that any territorial concessions by Kiev could provoke political instability and divisions among the population, which would perceive it as capitulation.
By these developments, Micawber's principle manifests itself in Putin's expectation of "something special" - an outcome that could change the course of the war, even though victory on the battlefield is not yet possible.
"Putin may be in a quandary - his war cannot be won on the battlefield in the sense that he does not have the power to conquer Ukraine - but he is waiting for something special. Meanwhile, Ukraine must try to keep going: it also cannot win on the battlefield and regain all the lost land, but it must survive, hoping that Russia will eventually tire of forcing Putin to take negotiations seriously," the author concluded.