Fox News: The Ukrainian Armed Forces' Offensive In The South Is Significant
- 25.02.2026, 11:57
Western experts have named three possible outcomes of the war in Ukraine.
Four years after Russia launched a full-scale invasion, the war in Ukraine has turned into a grueling conflict characterized by huge casualties and few territorial shifts. Russia still controls about one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, while Ukraine has recently launched a counteroffensive on one section of the front.
Diplomacy has intensified in parallel with the fighting. But as the war enters its fifth year, former officials and analysts say the next phase could develop along three possible paths, writes Fox News.
Scenario One - Protracted Stalemate
The most likely trajectory in the near future is a continuation of the current state. The war remains a conflict of attrition in which neither side strikes a decisive blow and negotiations yield little progress. Retired U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, former supreme commander of NATO forces in Europe, said Moscow is not winning despite holding territory: "There is no winner right now."
"Russia, supposedly the world's superpower with one of the three best armies in the world and the four best air forces, has seized about 20 percent of Ukraine in 12 years. And they lost, by some accounts, more than 1.2 million people in that conflict. It's a conflict that Ukraine is working hard to deal with. It is also a conflict that Russia is not - I repeat, not - winning," he said.
Scenario Two - Ukraine dynamics change diplomacy
The recent developments on the battlefield suggest another possibility. Breedlove pointed to Ukraine's rapid advances following failures in Russian command and control systems. "In the last three or four days, because of the loss of the Starlink control system, Ukraine launched an offensive and they beat back the results of months of Russian advance in three days. It was a three-pronged push, hundreds of square kilometers have been regained, and Russia is now retreating in several places," he said.
Vandenberg Coalition executive director Carrie Filipetti said such gains could change leverage at the negotiating table.
"Ukraine's recent offensives to regain its territory are another signal that Putin's war machine continues to atrophy. Russia's recent territorial losses show that Putin and his army are far from invincible and are beginning to face real setbacks in terms of capabilities and resources," the expert emphasized.
She added that momentum matters: "Not only is this Ukraine's most significant advance in two years, its importance can be felt even more concretely at the diplomatic table. Finding a lasting and just peace through negotiations often depends on momentum - and right now it is on the side of the Ukrainians."
If these gains continue, they could change Moscow's calculations and give Kiev a stronger bargaining position, with strong U.S. support, Breedlove argues, "The first and most important thing that Ukraine needs is a declarative statement from the West and specifically from the United States that we are not going to let Russia win in Ukraine, and we are going to give Ukraine what it needs to stop Russia, so that Putin hears that clearly. And when the people of Russia hear that clearly, it's a game changer. I think that's when Mr. Putin will have to make the hard decisions."
Scenario Three - Escalation or Western fatigue
The third path worries some Western strategists: inconsistent support could prolong the conflict or tilt it in Russia's favor. Heather Nauert, who served as U.S. State Department spokeswoman from 2017 to 2019, characterized the war as more than a territorial dispute.
"As we enter the fifth year of Putin's war in Ukraine, we are reminded that this conflict was never just about territory - it's about identity, faith and the future of a free nation. Russia has destroyed more than 600 churches, persecuted millions of Ukrainian Christians in occupation, and kidnapped more than 19,000 children in an attempt to break the spirit of Ukraine. President Trump's desire for lasting peace must be backed by strength and accountability - one that protects innocent lives, defends religious freedom, and brings stolen children home," Nauert said.
Retired Lieutenant General Richard Newton, for his part, emphasized that deterrence remains key. "Four years into this terrible war, the fundamental lesson remains the same: peace is only possible when force dictates the terms. Putin will continue to brutally test our resolve until the cost of his aggression outweighs any possible benefit," he added.
"Ukraine needs not gestures from the world, but unwavering support from the United States and Europe, which will convince Moscow that further advancement will entail unacceptable consequences," the expert argued.
"Russia should not prevail over Ukraine and the West. What is needed are credible security guarantees, strong offensive and defensive capabilities, and a unified long-term commitment from the West."
Bridlaw warned that negotiations alone will not change the balance: "The most dangerous scenario is that we don't do what we have to do in Ukraine and Russia takes over Ukraine because they are not finished. We have a policy of 'peace through strength' and we use it in Iran, in Venezuela. But when it comes to Putin and Ukraine, we practice 'peace through weakness.'"
"Mr. Putin is proving that he is in charge in Ukraine, not the West and certainly not America. We need to change that dynamic. Instead of dictating to them what to do, we go to the good guys and say, 'You have to concede more because the bad guys are misbehaving in the sandbox.' That's peace through weakness, not peace through strength," Breedlove concluded.