Bloomberg: Orban Is Heading For Open Conflict With EU And Ukraine
- 26.02.2026, 12:03
For the sake of the election.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is going all-in, rolling out an anti-Ukrainian campaign less than seven weeks before elections, blasting the latest EU aid packages to Kiev and measures to punish Moscow. The prospect of a historic defeat that could end his 16-year rule has him on the defensive after an independent poll showed Orban's party trailing by 20 points.
Orban used to bargain with the EU to block aid to Ukraine, but always ended up compromising. Now, for fear of losing the election, he is afraid of looking weak and may go on principle to the very end. Orban may now have few options to lift the blockage on a 90 billion euro loan package for Ukraine and a 20-pack of sanctions against Russia, writes Bloomberg. For Ukraine, it's a disaster: while the Hungarian prime minister saves his rating, Kiev may simply run out of money in a couple of weeks.
Energy blackmail and "oil blockade"
Orban's attacks on Kiev were part of his strategy even before Russia's full-scale invasion, drawing on historical grievances and Budapest's ties to Moscow. He recently redoubled his efforts, branding Ukraine and its EU backers "warmongers" seeking to cut off energy supplies to Hungary and promising to keep the country out of the conflict.
The current clash with Kiev was triggered by a January attack that knocked out the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies Russian oil through western Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia. Orban and Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fitzo have accused Ukraine of delaying repairs and cutting off supplies; Kiev says recovery takes time.
Orban has promised to block any EU decision that could help Ukraine until Kiev restores pumping, media reports said. Fitzo, on the other hand, has said he does not expect supplies to resume before March 3. Brussels was particularly outraged that Orban blocked the loan package that he himself approved at a meeting of EU leaders back in December. As a result, the visit of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to Kiev, timed to the fourth anniversary of the war, turned out to be largely symbolic. The material says that the head of the European Commission came virtually empty-handed: the aid package for 920 million euros for the restoration of the energy sector mentioned by her had been in the works for a long time.
"This is very, very unfortunate. Of course, on the positive side, we have seen this before and always in the end come to a result and a solution," EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said in a recent interview.
Fight for political survival
Orban's confrontations with Brussels have indeed been resolved in the past - usually to keep the flow of money from the EU flowing or to bargain for concessions. Budapest has been careful not to sever relations with other capitals entirely. But now that Orban is fighting for his political life ahead of a vote in April, his focus is on shoring up domestic support, the diplomat said on condition of anonymity.
"You all sided with the Ukrainians against your own homeland. Against Hungarian families and companies - every one of you," Orban said in parliament, pointing a finger at opposition lawmakers. The next day, the Hungarian prime minister ordered increased security for Hungary's energy infrastructure and banned drone flights in a county bordering Ukraine, citing what he called an "oil blockade" by Ukraine.
The election is close
The Median poll could be a sobering factor for Orban. The Tisza party, led by ruling elite outlet Peter Magyar, is ahead of Orban's Fidesz party with 55 percent against 35 percent among those who are determined to vote (up from a 12 percent gap in mid-January).
This gap is the largest recorded by independent pollsters and puts Tisza on the path to a supermajority in parliament. The forint strengthened 0.6 percent against the euro after the poll was published.
This fundamental shift in Budapest is fueling Orban's rhetoric: he is increasingly arguing that his role as Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin's closest ally in the EU has paid off. Hungary continues to import cheap oil from Russia even as most EU members have cut off trade with Moscow. This partnership is the centerpiece of state propaganda. Every electricity bill consumers receive is highlighted in bright red how much money the government's "tariff reduction" program has saved them, the media says.
The anti-Tisza agenda also distracts attention from factors that have helped the Tisza party in the polls: weak economic growth, high inflation and recent scandals that have undermined Orban's support.