Gref Predicted A Sharp Fall Of The Russian Ruble
- 26.02.2026, 19:06
According to the head of Sberbank, there is "no chance of having a strong ruble."
A reduction in the volume of mirroring operations on the foreign exchange market by the Central Bank and a shrinking balance of payments surplus will lead to a downward reversal of the Russian ruble exchange rate from the second quarter of 2026, considers Sberbank CEO German Gref.
"I don't see a single chance this year to have such a strong ruble (as last year). It is counterproductive simply by every conceivable and inconceivable indicator," he said, answering questions from reporters.
The ruble rose nearly 45% against the US dollar in 2025, becoming the strongest currency against the dollar.
Russia's balance of payments surplus in 2025 amounted to $41 billion, and in 2026 is expected to be $10 billion, Gref recalled.
"To have an exchange rate of 80... with such parameters - it would be an obvious improbability if it happens. We cannot rule out anything, but it is against everything - theory, logic, practice and so on," the bank head said.
Sber's official forecast for the ruble exchange rate at the end of 2026 is 85-90 rubles per dollar. "The expectations of colleagues are a little more conservative... My personal expectations for the end of the year are plus or minus 95. Perhaps, if circumstances coincide, closer to 100, it will depend on the central bank's policy. You know that yesterday our finance minister announced that the cut-off price will be lowered. And if that means a reduction in mirroring operations, then we will see the dynamics of the exchange rate in the near future. As soon as this mirroring will be reduced - the ruble exchange rate will go down," Gref said.
The day before, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the Russian government is considering tightening the budget rule in terms of lowering the base price of oil. In the event of such a decision, the supply of currency on the market by the Central Bank, netting now the operations of the Ministry of Finance with its sales of currency to mirror the expenditures of the Federal National Bank, will be reduced.
In February, taking into account such netting, the Central Bank is selling Chinese currency (and gold) on the Moscow Exchange for 16.5 billion rubles a day. Now it is much more than 1/10 of the average volume of exchange trading in the yuan/ruble pair "tomorrow" for the last time and is a noticeable support for the ruble, the loss of loss of which in the future may lead to weakening of the Russian currency. Gref is confident that with such discounts on Urals oil, such a low oil price, the ruble exchange rate should go down.
"The combination of these two factors should lead to the fact that the (dollar) exchange rate from the second quarter should begin to grow. The parameters at what rate it will grow are impossible to predict yet, largely intuitive things," he said.
"We understand that there are two components... of course, it is the volume of mirroring operations and the state of the balance of payments. If the balance of payments is $10-15 billion, the central bank will gradually withdraw from this market and we should be around 95-100, let's say, at the end of the year. But once again, if you make me sign this forecast in blood, I will definitely not sign it".