One EU Decision Could Leave Russia Without Oil Money
- 6.02.2026, 20:52
The consequences will be critical.
Russia exports oil using a shadow fleet despite sanctions. However, Europe is considering a decision that could break Moscow's established schemes.
If the EU decision succeeds, Russia could lose substantial budget revenues, explained "Channel 24" executive director of the Ukrainian Economic Discussion Club Oleh Pendzin. It will soon become known what Russia should prepare for.
The European Union is preparing the 20th package of sanctions against Russia, which will be published by the end of February. In addition to sanctions against Russia's financial and economic structures and other restrictions, Europe plans to take a serious look at Russia's shadow fleet.
- If they do this, it will be a very serious blow. Earlier Europe introduced a price cap on oil, which can be an argument for providing legal services - 44 dollars per barrel of Russian oil. Now there are talks that they want to abandon this and recognize any Russian oil as illegal. This will be a disaster for the shadow fleet," explained Oleg Pendzin.
A large number of tankers of the shadow fleet serve the export of Russian oil. That is, tankers with foreign origin provide services to Russian refiners and illegally transport their oil.
The ceiling price is the maximum or minimum price at which a market participant is still ready to make a deal: for the buyer - the highest price he is ready to pay, for the seller - the lowest price for which he is ready to sell. In the case of Russian oil, however, it is more of a legal exception to the sanctions. It allows European companies to transport, insure and service Russian oil only if it is sold for no more than a set limit.
"If the price cap is abolished - all delivery companies will automatically be forced to refuse to provide services to Russia. However, whether Europe will be able to "push through" this decision is unknown. For example, Greece and Cyprus will be against it. But there are also serious arguments "for", - the economist noted.
In particular, the countries that have access to the Baltic water area are categorically against the shadow fleet sailing along the Baltic. That is, it is likely that the EU will still take such a serious step as lifting the price cap on Russian oil.
In this case, Russia will lose 20% of its exports. Such a figure is critical for the Kremlin, the expert concluded.