The Dollar Is Starting To Bounce
- 9.02.2026, 10:07
What should Belarusians expect?
Last week, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in the Belarusian fx market turned to growth. What will happen to the exchange rates in early February, says financial analyst Mikhail Grachev in the traditional forecast for myfin.by.
Dollar began to grow
The U.S. dollar exchange rate was somewhat volatile last week, but at the end of trading on the BCSE "green" stopped at USD/BYN 2.8683. Total for last week the dollar exchange rate grew by +1.24%, the gap from the beginning of the year reduced to -1.19%. It is noteworthy that the weekly trading volume of the U.S. dollar reached the maximum value of the current year at USD 88.264 million. However, this is still only the beginning of the year, and there is a high probability that these values may be increased in the future.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble in the Belarusian fx market decreased by -0.56% to RUB/BYN 3.7319 per Br100 over the same period. Since the beginning of the year, the growth of the Russian ruble has decreased to +0.70%.
Such "swings" during the past week can be explained by the similar volatility of exchange rates in the Russian financial market. There are some changes there, which can form a trend for weakening of the Russian ruble and, consequently, the growth of the US dollar and euro.
With the continuing rigid policy of the Bank of Russia, the market is beginning to form a deficit of supply of "unfriendly" currencies. The matter is that the Central Bank insists on firm fulfillment of the budget rule, within the framework of which the volumes of currency sales on the domestic currency market are preserved. At the same time, the supply of currency from exporters within the framework of mandatory sales is decreasing against the background of falling oil prices.
Causes of the dollar's growth
The last two weeks the price of the benchmark brand Brent was moving in a range from about $65 to $72 per barrel, trying to find an equilibrium value. Recall that due to the sanctions measures, Russian Urals oil is trading at a significant discount, due to which the deficit of the Russian state budget in January this year, against the background of falling oil and gas revenues, has already amounted to 1.4 trillion rubles. To cover this deficit, funds from Russia's National Wealth Fund are being channeled, but this is gradually creating an increased demand for currency on the financial market.
As foreign trade contacts revive with the beginning of the year, demand for currency may increase on the part of importers. This will also put pressure on the ruble with all the consequences.
In the global financial market last week, gold and silver prices are gradually recovering after the collapse in late January. The price of an ounce of gold rose to end the week at $4979.80 an ounce on the futures market and $4961.15 on the spot market. Silver returned to prices near $80.0 per ounce. There is a high probability that the current week may finally form a trend either for further growth of precious metals, or for a drawdown in their prices.
Weekly Forecast
There are two important blocks of news on the States this week - NFP on Wednesday, February 11, and inflation data on Friday, February 13. These reports combined will give direction to the dollar exchange rate in the global market, which also fluctuated in a relatively wide range last week. Preliminary forecasts on the reports are negative for the U.S. dollar.
In view of the above, the Belarusian currency market is highly likely to experience a jumping movement of the dollar without a definite direction this week. It's still premature to talk about any established trend, everything depends on a variety of external circumstances. Nevertheless, it is most likely that the dollar will continue to grow in value, overcoming USD/BYN 2,910.
Banks, investment and financial companies, presented in this section may not coincide with the editorial opinion and do not constitute an offer or a recommendation to buy or sell any assets or currencies.