It's Time To Get Rid Of Illusions
- Vitaly Portnikov
- 10.03.2026, 17:08
New wars have begun.
The war with Iran demonstrated a truth that is usually realized after the start of hostilities: war is always practice, not theory. The United States developed a plan for an air attack and destruction of the Islamic Republic's military potential, but in the first days of the war spent millions of dollars to fight Iranian "Shaheds" - the very drones that Ukrainians encountered in the first months of Russia's war against Ukraine and that have continued to terrorize the country for the fifth year already.
And, by the way, back then, in 2022, I wrote that the Iranians were supplying drones to the Russians for a reason and not even just for money. Ukraine has become a real testing ground for Iran to practice future wars in the Middle East. The Iranians were helping their ally in the Kremlin - and at the same time learning for themselves.
And now these new wars have begun - and it turned out that Iran's opponents were not prepared for them and fell not only into a security trap, but also into a financial trap. The very appeal to Ukraine to help fight Iranian drones is good evidence of this.
Four years of the Russian-Ukrainian war is an important experience for both armies. One could say that today modern warfare is practiced in both Moscow and Kiev. Only Russia is playing for a different team. It helps Iran and North Korea, conducts joint military exercises with China and is interested in destabilizing Europe. The Russians will help the Iranians strike American targets, not explain to the American military how to defend themselves against enemy attacks.
That is why the civilized world today has only the experience of the Ukrainian army - and it is invaluable experience. After all, the Ukrainian army during these four years did not just study modern warfare and actually formed it. It has also gained experience in confronting a smaller army against a stronger opponent, which means that it is the Ukrainians who can better understand Iran's tactics. And it is the Ukrainians who can explain how to defend themselves against Iran and how to force its regime to abandon its aggressive actions toward its neighbors - actions that are already destabilizing the world economy and could quickly lead to an unpredictable collapse.
Yes, a U.S.-Israeli war against Iran could create many risks for Ukraine. There's the rise in oil prices, which could give Putin an opportunity to replenish the Russian budget with new petrodollars. And a possible shortage of anti-missile missiles - if drones are shot down with Patriot missiles, this shortage could become tangible in the coming weeks. And we should not forget how many countries will now be "hunting" for such missiles.
But at the same time, the need for joint action to confront authoritarian regimes becomes obvious. One can, of course, ignore Russia's true intentions - but that's like ignoring the elephant in the room. Sooner or later, President Trump's administration will have to accept a simple conclusion: without Ukrainian experience, it is impossible to ensure the security of U.S. military facilities in the Middle East (and beyond) and to understand the logic of modern warfare in general.
And this means the need to help Ukraine fend off Russian aggression, rather than harbor dangerous illusions about the possibility of reaching an agreement with Putin.
Vitaly Portnikov, Facebook