"Now We're Seeing A Series Of Strikes Against Russia."

• 12.03.2026, 18:41

Ukrainian diplomat tells why China and Russia have not come to Iran's aid.

What are the main scenarios for the development of war in the Middle East possible today? About this and more, Charter97.org spoke with Ukrainian diplomat and political scientist, director of the Center for Defense Strategies Alexander Hara:

- There should be an escalation before everything calms down for a while. The key problem here is that the goals of the United States and Israel are completely unclear. They are different.

The second point is the impossibility of achieving the stated abstract goals - regime change, regime change - without a ground campaign or without, let's say, some of the Iranians starting to fight for regime change. Now we see American attempts to turn on the Kurds and start the mechanisms of civil war. But since it is all very difficult to predict, we can only say that there is an intensive campaign to destroy the production of weapons, possible production of nuclear weapons, stockpiles of drones and missiles to make both the region and the United States safer.

When this goal is achieved, and if there is no change on the ground (armed opposition ready to come to power, which is not seen now), the war will quiet down for a while. However, there may be periodic strikes, the Americans may destroy either some infrastructure or Iran's political and military leaders.

Iran has shown the ability to withstand the first strike, and now their strategy is to make the price of oil unacceptable to the rest of the world so that global players will start pressuring the United States and Israel to stop the strikes. There was information today that they have started to mine the Strait of Hormuz, strikes on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. Plus tankers still traveling in the region. Major insurance companies have refused to insure the risks of these tankers, which means a blockade of the region. And few people will risk their oil and tankers to make any money. Iran was left virtually alone with Israel and the US.

- Why didn't China and Russia come to Tehran's aid?

- They had helped Tehran before. The Russian Federation was literally shipping weapons, air defense systems, missiles, and drones, which have already been identified, by military transport planes prior to the operation. China was buying oil to circumvent sanctions and providing military goods, components that are needed for weapons.

There are several reasons why they didn't go to war. First, the most important, it would have meant a direct confrontation with two nuclear-armed states. We know that Israel doesn't officially have nuclear weapons, but if necessary, they can use them. The United States clearly has those weapons.

Second, how could the Russians do anything at all when they are bogged down in Ukraine? They don't have that kind of capability. They can barely handle eastern Ukraine when the Ukrainians don't have Tomahawk, F-16s, F-35s, and a great many other precision weapons.

Now we see a series of strikes against Russia. The first strike is Syria, then Venezuela, now Iran, and most likely Cuba in the near future. And the Russians are certainly not coming to the rescue. They are not going to go to war with the Americans because they are not suicidal.

For the Chinese, of course, this is also a certain blow because it hurts the economy.

The Chinese are also not ready to go to war with the Americans. Let's remember that Si Jinping set a goal for his People's Liberation Army to be able to solve problems in their region by 2027. Primarily meaning Taiwan, and the fact that we see the sweep of generals that has been going on for the last year says that it may indeed be corruption, but on the other hand the military is probably not ready to take orders to attack, realizing the consequences.

China is not yet ready to do anything in its region. There was information that the Russians were passing data to target Iranian drones and missiles on US infrastructure. I think the Chinese are doing the same thing, only in such an indirect way. And they certainly won't go to war with the US. The most dangerous thing for Xi Jinping is internal destabilization. We know and see how it happens with Russia. Any large-scale war leads to structural changes in the state.

In terms of resources, the way the population behaves and so on, Xi Jinping cannot influence public opinion. Although China is not a democracy, we saw protests during the coronovirus when people didn't like these draconian measures. If there is a deterioration in the lives of the Chinese, there is a very good chance that there will be mass protests. Xi is avoiding actions that could shake up the communist regime. He will do whatever is necessary to keep that stability and not get involved in any adventures that could undermine it.

- How will the Middle East change after the US and Israeli military operation?

- No one will give you an answer right now. I would like to see the ayatollahs' regime fall and the country start on the path of returning to its civilizational roots, and for Iran to become a normal state in the region. Then that would change things dramatically. There would not be a country that supports terrorists from Hamas, Hezbollah, that is constantly preparing for war with Israel.

Then the Middle East would change, but that is not likely to happen anytime soon. The regime has weakened and will try to regain certain resources. But it is too early to talk about these things.

We see Arab involvement in the campaign against Iran. The strikes have pushed them closer into the camp of the United States and Israel. For Saudi Arabia, the Arab Emirates, Kuwait, the security issue is important, so there has been a certain consolidation of these Arab countries around the United States. They see Iran as a threat. In their worst dreams they see ayatollahs with nuclear weapons. That would be a threat not only to the US and Israel, but to the entire Middle East.

I recall that in 2019 there were strikes on Saudi Arabia's infrastructure. There, however, China mediated and they sort of reconciled, but the underlying contradictions went nowhere There is the issue of religious separation and Iran's aggressive policy, its support for terrorist groups and pushing the region into war.

The contradictions remain and Iran is weakened. This is generally positive for the region, but the challenge is not finally over. After all, there has been no ground campaign and no regime change. And the internal resources of the opposition are not yet visible. This, by the way, is like in Russia. It is the same story: disparate people who consider themselves oppositionists are unable to unite, to provide an agenda for people who should support them. Accordingly, propaganda is needed to engage large segments of the population. And most importantly, be prepared for armed resistance to the regime, because the FSB cannot be so easily thrown off. The special services control the media, money, energy, large parts of the economy.

It's the same in Iran. There are a large number of different security forces and intelligence services there that suppress any protests. I don't see a structured opposition that is willing to do something, to unite people and take up arms.

So the regime is likely to mothball in the long run, and eventually it will fall, because its resources have been exhausted. Venezuela and Russia will not come to the rescue. China, on the other hand, will not invest in Iran any more than it will pump oil and other resources out of them for pennies.