The New Khamenei Is Losing Control

• Igor Semivolos
• 13.03.2026, 11:32

The ayatollahs' regime is falling apart from within.

The inaugural speech of Mojtaba Khamenei was couched in a spirit of "militant messianism." The new Rahbar called the US and Israeli strikes "the agony of the capitalist world" and assured that the nuclear program had not been halted, only "purified by fire." He appeared surrounded by the top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), making it clear that he was not just a spiritual leader but "the supreme commander of the warring nation." There was not a single word about negotiations in the speech. On the contrary, a shift to tactics of "asymmetric response anywhere in the world" was declared.

What is important here? None of the key founding clans of the Republic (neither Larijani nor Rafsanjani) showed up at the celebrations (at least they are not recorded anywhere). The Rafsanjani clan symbolizes the "bazaar" (big capital) and the economy, while the Larijani clan symbolizes state bureaucracy and diplomacy. Their joint absence may mean that Mojtaba has lost control of the money and the apparatus of government, left only with "bayonets."

Fairly, they explain their absence by "security reasons," but according to Shiite political tradition, attendance at the inauguration and subsequent celebrations is an act of recognizing the legitimacy of the new leader. By ignoring the banquet, it can be assumed that Larijani effectively refused to swear allegiance to Mojtabi as the new "Rahbar."

A split in the family of the late President Rafsanjani is also being recorded. Although his son Mohsen sent an official congratulatory letter, Rafsanjani's daughters, particularly Faeze Hashemi, have publicly refused to sign off on it. This is particularly telling because Faezeh Hashemi had previously conceded that Mojtaba could be an effective leader. Her current refusal indicates that even the pragmatic wing of the elite sees Mojtaba not as an independent figure, but as a tool in the hands of the radical IRGC.

For an Iranian political culture where the "chief in the family" (the brother) determines the common position, this public resistance by the women of the clan is unprecedented. It is a signal to the protest movement: the elite are not just suspicious of each other - they are openly antagonistic.

The "old guard" does not appear to be ready to recognize Mojtaba unanimously. The hereditary transfer of power in Iran is causing resistance within the Revolution's most powerful families. If the Rafsanjani sisters are going against their brother's will, it means that there is no consensus on Iran's future even among those who created the system.

Igor Semivolos, Facebook