Lukashenko Can Forget About Klaipeda

• 13.03.2026, 16:43

The ICC's decision changes a lot of things.

The news that the International Criminal Court in The Hague has launched an investigation into the crimes committed by Lukashenko's regime has, in my opinion, remained somewhat underestimated and unanalyzed.

They say it has started and it has started. But in reality it creates a completely different political atmosphere - at least. At the very least, it significantly changes the timetable.

It is worth asking how this will affect Lukashenko's international image and his ability to conduct any negotiations with foreign politicians.

For example, for the Trump administration, this is likely to be of little importance ideologically, formally, or legally, since the US does not participate in the work of the ICC and does not recognize its jurisdiction.

But for European countries, it is quite an important factor in the moral and political sense. Imagine how different the prospects of any "dialog" or "agreements" with Lukashenko look for European politicians now. If you imagine that one of them suddenly enters into real negotiations with the leader of Belarus, how will the press and political circles of this country and Europe as a whole react to it? Who will you talk to? With a man whose crimes are being tried in The Hague?

This will also affect the itineraries of Alexander Lukashenko's foreign trips, including some international forums. Now he probably won't risk flying to countries that recognize the ICC's jurisdiction, including non-European ones. After all, even Putin, the nuclear-armed head of state, often has problems during foreign visits because of the ICC's arrest warrant against him dating back to 2023.

And one particularly wonders what will happen to Minsk's relationship with Lithuania, which has filed a lawsuit against Lukashenko at the ICC. It looks like the possibility of potash transit through Klaipeda can simply be forgotten.

Vitaly Tsygankov, "Facebook"