The Russian Ruble Fell To A Six-month Low
- 13.03.2026, 21:20
Despite the easing of U.S. sanctions.
Despite the easing of U.S. sanctions against Russian oil and a rise in prices for Russian grades to $70-80 per barrel, the Russian ruble has accelerated its decline against key world currencies, reports The Moscow Times.
On Friday, the yuan exchange rate on the Moscow Exchange rose to 11.69 rubles (the maximum since Sept. 25), the dollar on the OTC market rose to 80.66 rubles (the maximum since Jan. 6) and the euro to 92.47 rubles (the maximum since Jan. 12).
Since the beginning of March, the ruble has lost nearly 5 percent to the yuan and about 4 percent to the dollar, closing in negative territory for the fourth week in a row for the first time since last summer. The key reason is the refusal to sell foreign currency from the Federal National Bank to cover the budget deficit, PSB analysts wrote.
March 6, the Finance Ministry announced that it was suspending the sales, which in recent months had been record-breaking at about $2 billion a month. According to VTB estimates, this should weaken the ruble by about 10% against the yuan and help the authorities to save the balance of the National Wealth Fund, whose liquid assets have shrunk 2.5 times since the start of the war, while foreign currency assets have fallen to their lowest level since the fund was created in 2008.
Fundamental reason for what is happening with the currency is that a strong ruble is a bad match for Russia's chronic budget deficit, says Andrei Khokhrin, CEO of Ivolga Capital. In January-February, the "hole" in the federal treasury reached 3.5 trillion rubles, and the government's revenues were almost half of its expenditures.
"Already in April, and maybe even at the end of March, the market will begin to receive an increased supply of dollars and yuan, received from the rise in commodity prices," warns Igor Sokolov, an analyst at Alor Broker. This should lead to the strengthening of the ruble, he predicts, although much will depend on the reform of the budget rule.
But the inflow of foreign currency earnings into the economy is declining following the falling prices of Russian oil at the beginning of the year, and in some banks there is a shortage of yuan, writes economist Egor Susin. This is evidenced by the growth of rates on yuan loans on the interbank market: if almost all last year banks were ready to lend each other Chinese currency at 1% per annum, now it is 7-11%.
"The situation can be corrected by the inflow of currency by the end of spring from higher oil prices," says Susin.