ISW: Gerasimov Lies To Putin All The Time
- 18.03.2026, 10:50
Analysts explained the reason why.
General Valery Gerasimov continues to exaggerate tactical details and overstate Russia's successes on the battlefield, creating the false impression that the front line in Ukraine is on the verge of collapse.
On March 16, Gerasimov visited the command of Russia's Southern Group of Forces and claimed that Russian troops captured 12 settlements in Ukraine in the first two weeks of March 2026 (roughly March 1-14). But the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) specifies that Russian forces captured two settlements in the first two weeks of March 2026.
Valery Gerasimov exaggerated Russia's claimed successes in small villages along the front line in an attempt to portray these successes as significant and convince the West and Ukraine to concede to Russia's territorial demands.
He fictionalized that Russian troops had captured Drobyshevo, Yarovoye, Sosnovoye, Reznikovka, Kaleniki and Golubovka in the Donetsk region, as well as Veselyanka in the Zaporizhzhya region.
ISW recorded that the Russians operated in 24 percent of Drobyshevo, 50 percent of Yarovoye and 57 percent of Reznikovka, and did not enter the other settlements at all.
Gerasimov repeated his December 29 statement that Russian forces controlled more than half of the town of Liman in Donetsk region, but presented it as fresh information, probably to give the false impression that the Russian army was rapidly advancing on the front.
The ISW estimated that the Ukrainian Defense Forces had probably liberated previously Russian-controlled parts of Liman.
The chief of the Russian General Staff also claimed that the Russian army controlled more than 60 percent of Konstantinovka, although according to the ISW, the occupiers were only operating in 7.85 percent of the city.
Gerasimov also tried to downplay Ukraine's successes in eastern Zaporizhzhya region, claiming that Russian troops were maintaining the initiative, actively advancing and repelling all Ukrainian counterattacks.
But the AFU reportedly liberated more than 400 square kilometers in the Alexandrovsky and Gulyaipol directions between late January 2026 and mid-March 2026.
Gerasimov, in particular, has made similar claims, exaggerating alleged successes on the battlefield in mid-January and February 2026. He holds similar rallies on a monthly basis.
Gerasimov has also claimed that Russian forces continue to expand the "buffer zone" in Sumy and Kharkiv regions, and has claimed to have captured a number of settlements, but ISW emphasizes that Russian forces are conducting limited cross-border attacks on small villages in order to make an informational impact and convince the West that the front line in Ukraine is crumbling and that Ukraine must give in to all Russian demands.
The front line in Ukraine is, in fact, operationally stable, and Ukraine has liberated more territory than Russian forces captured in the theater of operations in February 2026.