"The Importance Of Belarus Will Only Grow"
- 18.03.2026, 14:42
Mikalai Statkevich again warned Europeans and Belarusians about the Russian threat.
Belarusian opposition leader and released political prisoner Mikalai Statkevich published in his Telegram channel an answer to a question about the geopolitical situation around in the world and answered critics of his article-warning for Belarusians and Europeans.
- Former activists of Narodnaya Hramada, who are now outside Belarus, have passed on several questions to me that people are most interested in. I continue answering them here.
- The first articles you wrote have already caused discussions not only among Belarusians, but also among foreigners. One of the most important events of recent years is the war in Ukraine. Significant events took place this year as well. Dictator Maduro was arrested, the USA and Israel are waging a war against the Iranian regime. How do you assess the geopolitical situation today?
- As for my articles. When I published them, I expected a negative reaction from some readers, but I imagined it as follows: "what can I say, after all, it's a brain stroke", followed by false condolences and the same wishes for "a speedy recovery". But I didn't expect at all that even my author status would be questioned. So who wrote them, maybe Shakespeare's ghost slipped into my private channel, and I, because of my love for literature, kept silent?
And when denying authorship, I see that some public figures use conclusions from my first article, but without specifying the author. Well, okay at least that way. Maybe they just don't want to mention Shakespeare's ghost? Or they think I'm a ghost.
I must admit that in the legal sense they are somewhat right, because I was released without a single document certifying my identity. My passport remained in the colony, whose authorities did not respond to requests. Left as a souvenir? And without it, not only you can't go abroad for a checkup, as many people suggest, you can't even go to the local polyclinic. And you can't prove that I'm me. Only some brave bailiffs decisively recognized my physical existence without documents, but immediately claimed half of my pension, which I also can't restore without a passport.
Accepting the correctness of my conclusions about the threat to Belarus, many people were critical of my proposals to neutralize it. But they offered nothing in return. Maybe, like a pregnant schoolgirl, they hope that "it will sort itself out"?
I have written about the geopolitical situation around Belarus in detail in these articles. If I had little information about the real state of Belarusian society and the situation in political exile, because "Sovetskaya Belorussia", which I was forced to subscribe to in the colony, is not the best source here, then about the state of the Russian economy, the official attitudes and aspirations of the Kremlin, international events - about all this one could get a certain idea even from the same "Izvestiya", which I also subscribed to.
In addition, the Soviet experience of reading between the lines and my rather large and varied life, political and political experience, as well as my experience of reading between the lines, have made it possible to draw some conclusions. And the conclusions are obvious.
Losing Ukraine, the Kremlin will look for other places to break through to the West. Because the Russian mass consciousness still does not fit within the Russian Federation, and the Kremlin leadership needs a "victorious war" to keep and pass on power as a legacy. And also to force Europe to abandon sanctions and return to financing the crisis-ridden Russian economy through large-scale purchases of hydrocarbons from Russia.
Therefore, the importance of the "Belarusian balcony" for Moscow will only grow, which generates a number of risks not only for the already formal Belarusian statehood, but also for the physical existence of Belarus and Belarusians. I mention this only because it is Moscow's support that is the basis for the stability of the Belarusian regime. Such dependence can cost us very dearly.
It cannot be removed from outside by other countries, because it will only aggravate the struggle for the "balcony" on the part of Moscow.
In Venezuela, the regime's stability was ensured by the support of the poorest strata of the population, who received free food from the authorities, so Maduro's replacement does not change much there, on the contrary, his former supporters hope that now the sanctions will be lifted and the "feeding" will become better.
In Iran, the regime is based on Shiism, a religion based on the idea of suffering and the cult of death. There are still enough supporters of this religion to keep many power structures in a capable state.
I feel sorry for this courageous and talented people, but I do not see any prospects for their liberation in the near future. Maybe only under external pressure the weakened regime will go for some softening, but not now.