The Fate Of The Regime Will Be Decided In Days: A New Prediction On Iran
- 19.03.2026, 16:02
The anniversary of the protests could be a trigger for more protests.
The Iranian regime may find itself at a turning point in the coming days - this is the conclusion of expert Benny Sabati, analyzing the current situation around the country and pressure from outside, writes "Maariv".
In his assessment, the campaign against Tehran has reached a critical phase: on the one hand, Israel is demonstrating unprecedented activity and acting as tough as possible, on the other hand, there is inconsistency in Washington, which is slowing down the development of events. Sabati believes that Donald Trump's decisions are influenced by his entourage, including officials from previous administrations, which makes the Iran policy look like a series of fluctuations.
He notes that the US president does not always follow through and acts with caution, avoiding the most radical steps, such as strikes on key energy facilities. At the same time, according to the expert, the Israeli operation has already gone beyond the usual: the attacks have even affected strategic areas, including infrastructure related to supplies and interaction with Russia.
Separate attention is paid by Benny Sabati to the internal structure of the Iranian forces. According to him, the supreme leadership has effectively decentralized management, allowing units to operate more autonomously. "Iranians have turned into Hamasniks," he noted, emphasizing the similarities to a compartmentalized structure where individual groups can operate without direct instructions from above. This, he believes, creates a risk of continued instability even if the regime falls.
The expert also points to a decline in the quality of governance: despite losses among the leadership, their places are taken by less trained cadres, often returned "from the trenches." This weakens the system from within, although it does not completely deprive it of its ability to resist.
Sabati does not rule out a scenario of abrupt change. He links a possible escalation to the anniversary of the protests in Iran, which could be a trigger for new demonstrations. According to him, the population is in a state of expectation and needs a clear signal from outside, especially from the US. He describes the public mood as depressed: people are afraid to take to the streets not because of a lack of courage, but because of years of experience of living under pressure.
In conclusion, Benny Sabati emphasizes that the key to a possible breakthrough is to continue the pressure on the leadership, not just the infrastructure. He believes that removing a few more figures could seriously rock the system. "We could see significant changes within a week," he summarizes, allowing for a quick and unexpected turn of events.