Economists Close To The Kremlin Sound The Alarm
- 20.03.2026, 12:13
The Russian economy is "collapsing".
The Russian economy may go into recession by the end of this year. This follows from a report by the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting (CMACP), close to the Kremlin, which was read by "Izvestia".
Experts define recession as a decline in GDP over 12 months. The figure grew by about 1% last year, almost five times less than 2024's 4.9%. The signal of entering a recession is given by the composite leading indicator (COI) developed by the Center. Last December, its value was 0.49, which is almost three times higher than the critical threshold of 0.18. In addition, the indicators have been signaling for the fourth month that the recession may be protracted, i.e. will last more than a year.
The growth of the Russian economy is hampered by a high key rate, a more conservative fiscal policy and a shortage of personnel, says financial market expert Olga Gogaladze. In addition, the investment pause affects: companies' investments in fixed assets went into negative as early as the third quarter of last year (-3.1%) and will not grow until the Central Bank rate cut, said fund manager and founder of fintech platform SharesPro Denis Astafiev. According to the founder of Rodin.Capital Alexei Rodin, recession will become more likely if oil prices fall sharply or if new large-scale sanctions are imposed. However, the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, on the contrary, led to a jump in oil prices, and new sanctions have become unlikely due to the difficult economic situation in Western countries, the expert added.
Nevertheless, recession remains possible due to a new round of inflation, which will force the Central Bank to take a pause in reducing the rate, or the collapse of oil prices, says Igor Rastorguev from AMarkets. At the same time, active reduction of the key rate can prevent the negative scenario, says Freedom Finance Global Natalya Milchakova analyst. However, according to her, if the Russian economy will grow, it will grow by no more than 1% of GDP per year. More noticeable and sustainable growth is possible only in the second half of 2027, the expert predicted. In the meantime, the economy will continue to be pulled upward by companies associated with government contracts and the defense-industrial complex (DIC), Gogaladze concluded.