Experts Loyal To Lukashenko's Regime Predict A Huge Labor Shortage

• 20.03.2026, 17:28

Belarus' need for labor force in 2026-2030 will exceed 300 thousand people.

At that, the authorities expect to cover about 17% of the deficit by attracting migrant workers. This is stated in the macroeconomic review of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) experts loyal to Lukashenko's regime, reports primepress.by.

The experts note that the demand for workers in the country has been steadily growing over the past ten years: if in early 2016 there were about 28 thousand vacancies, by 2021 there were already 72 thousand. By the end of 2025, the need for personnel reached 164 thousand.

The EDB estimates that the pressure on the labor market will only increase in the coming years. Among the reasons is the redistribution of workers from rural areas and industry to the service sector, which leads to an imbalance between industries. According to government forecasts, the total staff shortage in 2026-2030 will exceed 300 thousand people.

In these conditions, one of the key tools is the attraction of foreign labor. The state program "Balanced Labor Market" provides for the attraction of about 50 thousand migrants over five years, which will cover about 17% of the demand for personnel.

The review also notes that in 2023-2025 Belarus simplified the rules of hiring foreign workers. In particular, since July 2023, certain categories of foreigners, including graduates of Belarusian universities and seasonal workers, can be employed without special permits.

As a result, the flow of migrant workers has increased significantly: if in 2021-2023, 11-14 thousand workers came to the country annually, in 2024 their number increased to almost 34 thousand. Thus, migration is becoming one of the key ways to compensate for labor shortages.