The Dollar Is Appreciating Rapidly
- 23.03.2026, 10:50
How long will it stay above 3 rubles?
Last week, the U.S. dollar exchange rate in the Belarusian currency market crossed the mark of Br3 and tried to gain a foothold on this position. How long the dollar will stay above three rubles and what values can be expected at the end of March, tells myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
Record trading volume and the dollar rate above Br3
On Thursday, March 19, the USD/BYN currency pair reached an annual high of 3.0184 at the BSE trading, but by the end of the trading week the dollar exchange rate was corrected to USD/BYN 3.0088. Total for the week the dollar exchange rate rose by +2.58%, since the beginning of the year the growth of the exchange rate is already +3.66%. The dollar trading volume on Thursday and Friday significantly exceeded the average daily values, while the total for the week amounted to a record $140.141 million in 2026.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian currency market naturally fell by 2.55% over the past week, and Friday's trading closed with the rate of RUB/BYN 3.6029 per 100 Russian rubles. In total, since the beginning of the year, the Russian ruble has been depreciating by -2.78%. The ruble trading volume amounted to about the average value of Br21.380.490 million for the week.
This change in the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar and the Russian ruble on the Belarusian fx market was quite expected and predictable, as similar adjustments of the dollar rate occurred in the Russian financial market. There, the dollar exchange rate was rising to USD/RUB 86.70 on Thursday, March 18, to roll back to USD/RUB 83.150 by the end of the week.
The decline of the ruble against the dollar is understandable against the background of the cessation of foreign currency sales by the RF Ministry of Finance as part of the adjustment of the cut-off price of the budget rule and speculative game against the ruble.
Dollar gravitates to 3 rubles
The meeting of the Board of Directors of the Bank of Russia held last week on Friday, March 20, was neutral for the currency market and the lowering of the key rate by -0.50% to 15.00% had no impact on the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate. The decision of the Central Bank was quite expected and has already been taken into account by the market.
This week the tax period opens in the Russian Federation, during which an additional amount of foreign currency may enter the market. The matter is that in March and April Russian exporters of oil and gas sector will have to make annual payments, so the demand for ruble liquidity may grow. Further, with the beginning of the next month, the market may receive higher revenues from March oil prices, which differ significantly from the prices of the beginning of the year. Thus, the dollar rate on the Russian and Belarusian currency market may correct and consolidate around Br3.00.
Weekly Forecast
Besides the Russian Central Bank, last week there were similar meetings of the U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday, March 18, and the European Central Bank the next day on Thursday. Both meetings had no implications for the global financial market, as both left interest rates unchanged. The policy of the world regulators is now neutral and takes a wait-and-see attitude amid the ongoing military conflicts, the consequences of which are yet to be assessed.
In view of the above, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar may minimally fall below Br3 and fix around this mark on the Belarusian currency market this week. The Russian ruble also remains neutral.