A New Signal From The U.S.

• Petro Oleshchuk
• 25.03.2026, 18:50

Trump has stopped acting like an arbitrator.

The latest reports that Washington is putting pressure on Kiev to withdraw Ukrainian troops from parts of Donbas and at the same time allowing withdrawal from the negotiations in case of lack of progress have become another indication of how much the very nature of the US mediation has changed.

According to Ukrainska Pravda, the US side is linking further participation in the negotiations precisely to progress in the "Donbas direction".

Reuters has repeatedly reported in recent weeks that Russia remains the main obstacle in the negotiations. When the mediator starts speaking the language of deadlines and threats of withdrawal, he actually shifts the center of pressure from the aggressor to the state that is defending itself. In such a construction, the problem is no longer formulated as Russia's compulsion to abandon ultimatums, but as Ukraine's unwillingness to agree to the format of peace that is being imposed on it.

The issue of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from Donbas is not a technical compromise at all, as the Americans sometimes try to present it. For Kiev, it is a question not only of territory, but of the very logic of security. Ukraine has consistently rejected the demand to leave Donbass, and Vladimir Zelensky has previously explicitly stated that such a scenario would only open the way for new demands from the Kremlin.

Reuters also reported earlier that the Ukrainian side views concessions on this section of the front as particularly dangerous, since the issue is not a symbolic line on a map, but real defensive lines and the prospect of further Russian advances.

A separate danger is that the U.S. threat to withdraw from the talks objectively plays into Russia's hands If the Kremlin sees that Washington is getting tired, distracted by other crises and is itself looking for an excuse to shut down the process, Moscow's motivation to move toward a real compromise disappears. On the contrary, the strategy of dragging out time becomes even more profitable.

Now the talks are on a "situational pause" against the backdrop of the U.S. war against Iran, and Kiev directly fears that the Middle East will push the Ukrainian issue to the periphery of American attention. In such circumstances, the phrase "either progress or we're out" sounds not as a tool to pressure Russia, but as a message that the U.S. is ready to reduce its own involvement. And this, of course, cannot but affect Russia's position.

Although, of course, Russia's position is most affected by the sharp rise in oil prices. When Putin counts potential revenues, the last thing he can think of is any "peace". On the contrary, the old geopolitical ludomaniac is likely to have a desire to "put everything on the line" and try to win the war against Ukraine without any negotiations.

Hence the main political conclusion. If one side demands a surrender concession, and the other side risks losing a key mediator for refusing such a concession, this is no longer a symmetrical negotiation process. This is a model in which the responsibility for the lack of peace is shifted from the aggressor to the victim of aggression.

Formally, Washington can present this as pragmatism, fatigue from the protracted war, or an attempt to "move the parties out of their seats." But in fact, this logic sets a very dangerous precedent. The tougher the Russian demands, the more pressure Ukraine receives to agree to at least some of them.

That is why the current U.S. threats to withdraw from the negotiation process should be seen not just as an emotional reaction to the stalemate in the negotiations, but as a symptom of a deeper problem.

A part of the American approach is increasingly gravitating not to the principle of "peace through deterring the aggressor" but to the principle of "peace through pressure on the victim".

For Ukraine, this means that the diplomatic front is becoming no less complicated than the military one.

Petr Oleshchuk, professor at Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, specially for Charter97.org.