Russia Faces The Worst Oil Export Crisis In History
- 27.03.2026, 23:54
Because of the AFU strikes on Russian Baltic ports.
Russian oil companies have notified buyers of a possible declaration of force majeure on oil shipments through the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Reuters reported, citing three industry sources.
The two major oil ports, which saw at least two tankers leave daily in March, have been hit by UAV raids three times since the beginning of the week. Primorsk, with a capacity of 1 million bpd, suspended oil loading on March 22 after a fire broke out at the port's fuel tanks.
March 25, Baltic ports were again attacked, but only Ust-Luga, with a capacity of 700,000 bpd, was affected. Ust-Luga was once again attacked by UAVs on Friday, and fires at the port's terminals and transportation infrastructure continue, Reuters sources told Reuters.
The shutdown of the two ports paralyzed about 40 percent of Russia's oil exports, the largest disruption of oil shipments in the country's modern history, the agency wrote.
Primorsk resumed oil transshipment on March 26 but continues to operate at reduced capacity due to the damage, Reuters sources said. Ust-Luga, through which coal and fertilizers are also shipped abroad, issued an official notice suspending oil shipments, without giving a timeline for resuming exports. According to a Reuters source, oil shipments from the port, scheduled for mid-April, have not yet been agreed.
"This is the most serious threat to Russian oil and oil product exports since the war began," said oil and gas analyst Boris Aronshtein. - The thoughtfulness, scale and focus of the attacks, as well as the timing of their execution, have all combined to produce an effect that I personally cannot recall in more than four years of war." Aronstein estimated that up to 50 percent of offshore oil exports, which amount to 3.5-4 million barrels a day, were affected.
The UAV attack in Ust-Luga suspended operations at Novatek's gas complex, which processes gas condensate into naphtha, kerosene and fuel oil. Naphtha exports from the plant have been suspended, sources told Reuters, and the timeline for its restoration is unknown.
Ukrainian drone strikes on ports could have a significant impact on Russia's oil export revenues, which are used to finance the war, and partially offset the temporary lifting of U.S. sanctions, analysts at the U.S. Institute for the Study of War wrote. In the week leading up to the strikes, oil exports brought Russia $2.45 billion, a record amount since April 2022, and those revenues jumped 120 percent from the end of February, following prices for Russia's Urals grade, which in India became worth more than $120 a barrel for the first time.
According to all appearances, both Ust-Luga and Primorsk terminals and, above all, oil storage facilities have been seriously damaged, says military analyst Yan Matveev: "The main question is how badly the port infrastructure for transshipment of oil and oil products has been damaged... If the equipment itself has been damaged, it could lead to a serious delay in the shipment of oil and fuel."