Iranian Signal For Lukashenko

• Valery Karbalevich
• 3.03.2026, 12:05

The ruler is always very sensitive to any information about the tragic fate of dictators.

Because it is trying the situation on itself. However, now the reaction of official Minsk to the events around Iran is rather cautious and restrained. Since the leadership of Belarus is not interested in entering into a conflict with the United States in the conditions of the negotiation process.

The attack of Israel and the United States on Iran, the destruction of the political and military leadership of this country indicates that the administration of Donald Trump is rebuilding the world in accordance with its ideas.

And one of the directions of this rebuilding seems to be the dismantling of dictatorial regimes in the world. And the goal is not so much to democratize autocratic countries as to change the politics of these states by overthrowing dictators.

First, the Americans captured Venezuela's leader Nicolas Maduro, forcing the country's new leadership to change its political course in accordance with U.S. interests. Now the attack has destroyed the leadership of Iran, headed by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

With this background, one can imagine what psychological state Alexander Lukashenko is in. During his meeting with Secretary of State of the so-called "Union State" Sergei Glazyev on February 16, he tried to explain why he did not fly to the United States at Donald Trump's invitation to attend the Peace Council meeting. They say that independent media write as if he was afraid of repeating the fate of Nicolas Maduro.

"I was not afraid of anyone and I am not going to be afraid. This is complete nonsense," Lukashenko said at the time.

A long-known element of the political style of the permanent leader of Belarus is a statement in the form of denial. That is, when he insistently denies something, the situation should be understood the other way around.

Lukashenko's strange, completely unexplained sympathy for dictators of all times and peoples draws attention. It is clear that similar ideas about the state structure, forms and methods of governance, permissible means of achieving goals play their role. But, apparently, it is not only that. There is a certain mystical, even fatal connection, which can be explained only by social psychologists. The Belarusian leader cannot hide his admiration for dictators, often to the detriment of his own reputation. Perhaps it is called soul mateship or attraction to people with similar psychological features.

That is why it is clear that Lukashenko always reacts extremely painfully to any information about the tragic fate of dictators. Because he tries the situation on himself. In his view, any power is a sacred thing, and an attempt on it is sacrilege. That's why Lukashenko usually fiercely defends all dictators - current and deposed. At one time he specially flew to Yugoslavia to support the autocrat Slobodan Milosevic. He offered political asylum to the same Milosevic, Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, deposed Ukrainian president Viktor Yanukovych, Nicolas Maduro. And former Kyrgyz leader Kurmanbek Bakiyev took refuge in Belarus, granting him Belarusian citizenship.

After the assassination of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, Lukashenko suddenly began forming a territorial defense that would protect him from a popular uprising. After this year's capture of Maduro by the Americans, Lukashenko became concerned about checking the readiness of military units and organizing military training camps for civilian reservists.

It is unlikely that all this will provide salvation in a critical situation. Rather, these actions resemble a way of psychological self-therapy. They say that something has to be done, one cannot sit idly by.

But now the reaction of official Minsk to the events around Iran is rather cautious and restrained. This is explained by logic: there is no need to quarrel with Donald Trump, who the day before made a very complimentary statement about the Belarusian leader: "I have a lot of respect for their leader... I like their leader very much."

The official reaction of the Belarusian authorities differs from Russia's position. Moscow directly condemned the Israeli and U.S. aggression against Iran.

The Belarusian Foreign Ministry issued two statements on February 28. One voiced abstract concern about the escalation of the conflict around Iran. The second condemned the attack on Iran, but did not name Israel and the U.S. as aggressors, focusing on the humanitarian aspect.

This caution is due not only to the fact that Minsk is not interested in a conflict with the U.S., with which there is a negotiation process, and Lukashenko positions himself almost as a trampist.

There is another aspect that is not paid much attention to at the moment. What are the U.S. claims and demands to Iran? Washington demands from Tehran to dismantle the program of developing nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. And Belarus is deploying (or plans to deploy) Russian nuclear weapons and the Oreshnik missile system on its territory. It is the deployment of the latter that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been emphasizing lately, appealing to Europe and the United States. The analogy with the Iranian situation is quite transparent.

And now Russia, weakened by the war with Ukraine, easily "surrenders" its allies: Syria, Venezuela, and Iran. There are forecasts of a possible soon fall of the dictatorial regime in Cuba.

Valeriy Karbalevich, "Radio Svaboda".