Nikolai Statkevich: Belarusians Will Have To Decide Everything Themselves

• 30.03.2026, 12:27

The situation in our region is becoming increasingly complex and tense.

Belarusian opposition leader, released political prisoner Nikoli Statkevich is sure that the territory of Belarus can be used for a nuclear provocation by Russia. In his Telegram channel, the opposition politician urges Belarusians to be ready for decisive action:

- The situation in our region is becoming more and more complicated and tense. Moscow has obviously lost Ukraine. The attack on Ukraine was for the Kremlin a continuation of the long lost cold war with NATO. The fact is that the idea of imperial revenge was and is an obsession of a significant part of Russian society. One could even say - the modern Russian national idea, which is taken into account and used by the ruling regime in Russia. Failure in Ukraine, especially against the backdrop of economic difficulties, could lead to a social and political crisis and a threat to the government. Russians forgive the tsar for millions of their own, and even more so for the sacrifices of others, but they do not forgive defeat.

For autocrats, absolute power is a value in itself. For them it is a strong drug, which is impossible to refuse. They identify themselves with the state, and some even with their country. For example, they call their political opponents "enemies of the state". And the Russian president claims that if the Russian Federation fails to add several hundred square kilometers of Ukrainian territory to its $17.1 million km territory, "Russia will perish."

I don't think our eastern neighbor will perish because of this, because somehow it existed from 1991 to 2014 without foreign lands. Another thing is that Putin himself may lose power, which in his mind is probably a catastrophe equal to the death of all of Russia. The loss of power threatens not only the usual way of life of autocrats, but often their very lives. Therefore, they are ready to do anything for the sake of power.

Statkevich is sure that having lost in Ukraine, Moscow should look for other victims for a new attempt at a "small victorious war":

- It is most likely that the Baltic states are planned to be the next object of attack. But after four years of fruitless and unprofitable war with Ukraine, Russian generals are less confident in their success. They no longer count on a successful blitzkrieg, as European countries, albeit slowly, are preparing to fight back.

A prolongation of the conflict, if their European allies come to the aid of the Baltic States, leads to Moscow's inevitable defeat. And not only because of the difference in economic, demographic and technological potential, but also because of a sharp decline, compared to the past, the combat potential of Russian soldiers.

The fact is that the most successful wars of the Russian Empire waged using slaves as soldiers.

Since the beginning of the XVIII century, the Russian army was formed from serfs, who were taken into it first for life, and then - for 25 years. Driven to a neurotic state by mushtraining and harsh punishments, they were terrible opponents, especially in close combat, and a terror to the civilian population.

Since the late 19th century, after the liberation of peasants from slavery and the transition to the mobilization principle of forming an army of relatively free people, Russia began to suffer defeats in wars.

The trend was stopped by Stalin, when peasants in collective farms were again turned into serfs. And when the NKVD barrier units were introduced, when they began to punish a soldier's relatives for his escape from the battlefield, when SMERSH sent to the firing squad for any manifestation of discontent, it became possible again to throw large masses of troops into frontal attacks on German machine guns.

The Soviet army began to win at the cost of colossal losses. Now there is supposedly no slavery in Russia, except for prisoners, whose supply is not unlimited.

The demographic potential of the once crowded and powerless village is almost exhausted. Soldiers recruited for big money from depressed regions or mobilized soldiers do not want to die obediently and en masse. If we take into account the corruption and theft always present in the Russian army, it becomes clear that the strength of the Russian army in the view of external observers was clearly overestimated.

To increase the chances of success in the future conflict, Moscow is also considering the option of using nuclear weapons to paralyze the will of the Europeans and force them to peace on the Kremlin's terms, as well as to prevent the troops of other European countries to come to the aid of the Baltic States.

The leader of the Belarusian opposition writes that in order to avoid a nuclear strike on its territory, Moscow is preparing to use nuclear weapons against Western countries from the territory of Belarus:

- Iskander missile systems capable of carrying nuclear warheads have already been deployed in Belarus near Osipovichi.

Now a modified Yars intercontinental ballistic missile is being deployed on our territory, which after its range was halved was named Oreshnik. But the main thing is that a storage facility for nuclear warheads is being built near Krichev, most likely for Oreshnikovs, Iskanders and tactical nuclear bombs.

The fact is that in the Russian army, and earlier in the Soviet army, nuclear warheads were stored not next to their carriers, as in NATO, but in special storage facilities - very expensive fortified structures where temperature, pressure and humidity are kept constant. In a threatening period or during regular training, the warheads are taken from the storage facility to the carriers (delivery vehicles) in convoys.

The fact that Moscow is building such an expensive and complex facility in Belarus and has already organized its air defense indicates that a large number of nuclear warheads will be permanently deployed on our soil. And not because Russia does not have enough land for their deployment, but for specific purposes.

We need to look for ways to prevent the use of our land for aggression against the Baltic States and for nuclear strikes. And to prevent it, avoiding a direct armed conflict between NATO countries and Russia on our land.

All this will have to be decided by the Belarusians themselves.

I have already written about my proposals. We have no other real way to liberate and preserve our country and peace in the region.

The main thing is to realize the reality of the danger in time and not to be late with the necessary measures.

The time is coming when the slogan "For a neutral, nuclear-free Belarus!" becomes a program of national survival, capable of uniting the majority of Belarusians, regardless of their views and place of residence..