Natallia Radzina: Lukashenko Is A Spacer For Trump And Putin

• 31.03.2026, 11:30

What's behind the negotiations between the U.S. and the Belarusian regime.

The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org Natallia Radzina gave a great interview to YouTube channel of the well-known Ukrainian journalist Vitaly Portnikov.

The main topics of the conversation include the new US policy towards Lukashenko's regime. Why does the US President's special envoy John Cole come to Belarus regularly, while Washington is gradually lifting sanctions on Minsk in exchange for the release of political prisoners?

Natallia Radzina believes that this is the result of agreements between US President Donald Trump and Putin:

- I have a feeling that either during the Alaska meeting or during their many phone conversations, an agreement was reached to gradually lift sanctions on Russia. However, since Putin could not refuse to participate in the war against Ukraine, he offered the option of gradually lifting restrictive measures from Belarus. In this case, Lukashenko has something to offer the United States, in particular - it could be the release of political prisoners.

Putin does not give a damn about the release of people in Belarus. It's not his political prisoners. I think he told Lukashenko that it's time to release prisoners who have been tortured in prisons for five years. Because this is the only way the U.S. will be able to lift sanctions against the Belarusian regime, and in the future the European Union can lift them as well.

The more so that now for Lukashenko the release of prisoners of conscience poses virtually no threat. We see how it happens: many are deported from Belarus upon release, and the U.S. agrees, although this is an absolutely illegal practice. Those who remain in the country are under total control.

As a result, it turns out that Lukashenko risks nothing, sanctions are lifted, and this is extremely favorable for Russia. The lifting of sanctions on Belavia has led to the fact that a large number of spare parts for Boeing are going to Russia through Belarus. This is evident from the statistics, because so many spare parts are not needed by the Belarusian fleet of airplanes, where there is a very limited number of these American airplanes. As we can see, Russia already benefits from the removal of restrictive measures from Belarus.

The U.S. is also putting pressure on the European Union to lift sanctions on Belarusian potash. If Lithuania gives in and opens the port in Klaipeda for potash and nitrogen fertilizers from Belarus, it will entail the automatic lifting of other EU sanctions against the Belarusian regime.

Vitaly Portnikov suggested that the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian potash may also be associated with the U.S. war against Iran and the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, where the ships with fertilizers are stuck, which could lead to serious consequences for global agriculture. Natallia Radzina believes that Washington has other motives:

- Now we are talking about the U.S. purchases of Belarusian potash fertilizers against the background of complicated relations with Canada, because the main suppliers of potash fertilizers in the world are Canada, Belarus and Russia. And in the United States, of course, most of the fertilizers come from Canada. There are figures of 85-90%. Now, on the eve of the sowing season, the situation on this market in America is quite tense. I think it is certainly beneficial for the U.S. to get these fertilizers from Belarus. Especially since there was obviously an agreement on supplies at reduced prices. Another thing is that now they can only go through Russian ports in the Baltic Sea. However, the same Ust-Luga is out of operation after Ukrainian drone attacks, and the port has been on fire for a week. There are also ports in St. Petersburg and Primorsk, but it is not certain that Ukrainian drones will not fly there tomorrow.

So that leaves either Klaipeda or, incidentally, Ukraine. And here I have questions, because there was news that American sanctions were lifted from the Ukrainian subsidiary of Belaruskali. Are the Americans now putting pressure on the Ukrainian authorities to let Belarusian potash fertilizers through to Odessa? Because this is the second short, cheaper way to transport these fertilizers by sea.

Vitaly Portnikov believes that if Kiev took such a step at the request of the United States, it would be an inconsistent policy, because today Ukraine blocks Russian oil supplies to Hungary and Slovakia, despite the fact that these countries are governed by Trump's friends - Viktor Orbán and Robert Fico. Natallia Radzina also draws attention to the military danger of such transportation:

- Why is Lithuania principled on this issue and does not give in to American pressure? They say firmly that they will not lift sanctions, they will not open the port in Klaipeda. After all, with these potash fertilizers, weapons can be sent to Lithuania by rail, saboteurs can travel, anything can happen. Moreover, Lithuania understands well that if such a precedent is created, it means that sanctions will be lifted by the whole European Union. And this is a very serious threat in today's conditions, when we see more and more frequent fears that the Russian army may attack the Baltic States from the territory of Belarus.

Vitaly Portnikov asked a question about the goals of the Trump administration in contacts with the Lukashenko regime. Could the US try to detach the Belarusian dictator from Putin through potash fertilizer supplies, weakening Moscow's economic influence? Natallia Radzina asked a counter question: how does Trump treat Putin:

- With great respect, considers him one of the partners in the redivision of the world. Putin is in the top three leaders that Trump perceives as strong. Him, Putin and Xi Jinping," Portnikov replied.

- Why then would Trump tear Lukashenko away from such a beloved and respected Putin?" - Natallia Radzina asked.

- Why then would Trump tear Putin away from such a respected Xi Jinping? Trump has a completely consumerist attitude toward people. He can think they are great leaders and compete with them at the same time. I mean, that's perfectly normal for a real estate developer. You have a good relationship with your colleagues, but if there's an opportunity to take a lucrative contract away from them, you're more than happy to take it, even if you know that this developer will go bankrupt as a result, he won't have anything to feed his family tomorrow. This is a completely normal approach to business," Vitaly Portnikov believes.

Natallia Radzina believes that there is a significant difference in Trump's attitude to the Russian dictator and the head of China:

- Xi Jinping is a serious competitor for him, Putin is not for Trump.

China is a really strong player who can become a world hegemon instead of the United States. So pulling allies away from him is the main task that the US president has set for himself. And Putin is his friend, Putin is not his enemy.

So I don't believe the talk that the US wants to once again allegedly tear Lukashenko away from Putin. Especially under Trump. Other American presidents have also done absolutely stupid things trying to pull the Belarusian dictator away from Putin. It ended in nothing, only with new repressions against the opposition and a full-scale offensive from Belarus to Ukraine in 2022. Because it was under this policy of pulling Lukashenko away from Russia that sanctions were lifted from the Belarusian regime and everything was forgiven to him.

Vitaly Portnikov asked about the attitude of the Belarusian opposition to the contacts between the United States and Lukashenko's regime. Natallia Radzina emphasized that the most important thing is saving human lives:

- The situation is ambivalent, but we welcome that people are being released. If it were not for some benefits from the U.S. cooperation with Putin and Lukashenko, the political prisoners would not have been released.

We see that the pressure exerted on Lukashenko's regime since 2020 was either insufficient or has not had the necessary impact yet, because sanctions do not start working from the first day of their introduction. At the same time, the conditions in Belarusian prisons are monstrous. A lot of people have died over the years. Yes, we all understand perfectly well that this prolongs Lukashenko's power for the time being. Yes, it does not change the essence of the regime in Belarus. One can hardly expect any softening of the political situation in Belarus. But the most important thing is that people are alive. Many of them have been deported from Belarus, some of them remain in prison, and it is necessary to seek their further release.

The possibilities of the opposition are limited. The U.S. has its own ideas about what the policy towards Belarus should be, while the European Union has its own. But the EU clearly understands that as long as a pro-Russian dictatorship rules in Belarus, sanctions against Lukashenko cannot be lifted. Especially in the conditions of the war against Ukraine. As long as this war continues, threats from the territory of Belarus will remain. Both in the form of nuclear missiles, which are to be brought into the country, but they are said not to be there yet, and in the form of "Oreshnik" missile launchers, which Lukashenko threatens to hit Ukraine and the EU with. Under these conditions, Europe cannot go for lifting sanctions on the Belarusian regime.

Vitaly Portnikov questioned the independence of Lukashenko's regime. The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org believes that the dictator has long ago turned into a Russian puppet:

- Lukashenko, of course, is absolutely tied up in relations with Russia. And here, when we talk about Trump's influence on Lukashenko, he fears Putin more. The Belarusian dictator understands perfectly well that without Putin he will not hold on to power.

Of course, the structures of power are infiltrated by Russian agents, there are a lot of them. But if we talk about the nomenclature in general, I hope that it still remains Belarusian. Of course, in the Soviet sense of "Belarusian", but nevertheless. Belarusian officials understand perfectly well that if Belarus is annexed to Russia, they will lose their profitable places, will be absolutely unnecessary, and Russian officials will simply take their place.

Answering the question about Kiev's policy towards Lukashenko's regime, Natallia Radzina spoke about the missed opportunities, in particular, the creation of a strong Belarusian volunteer unit on the basis of the Kastus Kalinowski Regiment, as well as a tough response to aggression from the territory of Belarus.

Vitaly Portnikov offered an interesting interpretation of the conversation between Lukashenko and Zelensky in the first days of the war, which was described by the Ukrainian president himself:

- I think that when Lukashenko talked to Zelensky and said: "Hit the Mozyr oil refinery, it was not the advice of a provocateur, but the advice of a conditional friend. Because that's exactly what Iran is doing right now. How is it trying to force the United States to give up expansion? It is hitting allies of the United States, oil refineries, exactly those facilities that are really important to the Americans. If Ukraine had realized from the first day of the war that it was necessary to hit oil refineries, including Belarus, then perhaps the war would have developed in a completely different way. And Lukashenko probably tried to explain this to Zelensky.

Natallia Radzina believes that the AFU could have turned the tide of the war if it had responded harshly to the Russian attack from the territory of Belarus:

- It was possible to hit the refineries, as Lukashenko suggested to Zelensky. It was also possible to hit Russian military bases that are located on the territory of Belarus. These are the radar station in Baranovichi and the Russian Navy communications center in Vileika. Now the president of Ukraine is talking about repeaters for drones, which are placed on the territory of Belarus. So there's an entire Russian radar station that directs the missiles that are flying into Ukraine today. If these facilities were hit, Russia would have to fold and at the very least withdraw its troops from Belarus.

Vitaly Portnikov recalled the signing of the so-called integration documents between Boris Yeltsin and Lukashenko, which began the increased involvement of Belarus in the orbit of the Kremlin:

- I remember that at that time I wrote an article in the Russian "Nezavisimaya Gazeta", which was called "There will be no Soviet Union". It was reprinted by a large number of Belarusian publications. It was said that it made Lukashenko very angry. And I considered it as a prophecy, so to speak: no matter what Russia and Lukashenko's Belarus do, it will not be possible to create any Soviet Union, even if the Russian authorities are guided by some domestic political considerations when they sign such agreements with Lukashenko.

Natallia Radzina agrees that the idea of "USSR 2.0" has failed and noted that even the so-called union state, which Yeltsin and Lukashenko started to build, is essentially gone:

- Now the war unleashed against Ukraine, which has lasted for a total of 12 years, completely buries all of Putin's plans to restore the Soviet Union. Yes, he can continue the war against Ukraine, he can attack the Baltic States, but, in general, he still can't do anything.

- As long as Putin is in power, the war will continue, I don't believe in any peace talks, but I also don't believe that the Soviet Union will be restored.

- I think that this idea has failed, because it failed back in the days when people remembered and were nostalgic for the Soviet Union. Even in Belarus, where Lukashenko took total control of the entire information space when he seized power, there was total propaganda, but even this so-called union state could not be built.

Could Belarus become a consolation prize for Putin if the goals of his war against Ukraine fail? Natallia Radzina believes that there is such a threat, but urges not to discount the Belarusian people:

- There is a threat, I don't argue. Another thing is that it will not be a worthy compensation and will somehow calm down that part of Russians, which today advocates the continuation of the war against Ukraine, those ultra-radical nationalists and other scum.

Secondly, we see that Putin still benefits economically from the relative independence of Belarus. Where we started our conversation: Putin benefits from the lifting of sanctions by the United States against Belarus, because our country has always been a smuggling hub for Russia, through which goods went to bypass sanctions. And, in general, they intend to continue it.

Plus we can now recall the nuclear weapons, which the Russian authorities threaten to deploy in Belarus. Here, too, there is a version that this deployment may be connected with the fact that it is profitable for Putin to use nuclear missiles from the territory of independent Belarus, so that our country would be responsible for it, not Russia. I really hope that this will not happen, because this is a really scary scenario.

In addition, I am still sure that the Belarusian nomenklatura is against it, and the Belarusians do not want to live in Russia. Of course, it is simply impossible to conduct any social surveys in Belarus. There is very little information that we, journalists, manage to get from the country. But even here we see that there is a quiet resistance to possible Russian occupation inside the country.

Yes, Belarusians can't go out to protest, can't say right now that they are against the war with Ukraine, although they went out and protested, went to prison for 10-20 years. It all happened. Now we see an interesting trend in the same social networks. In the Threads social network, which has become very popular in Belarus, there are heated polemics. For example, some Russian woman appears, who traveled to Minsk, went to some restaurant, ordered some pancakes, didn't like them, wrote "phew". In response, there is a huge number of comments from Belarusians.

"Right, and don't come. We have such disgusting food for Russians everywhere. Stay at home and don't come here!" There is anti-Russian domestic talk going on, and this is very important. It shows the mood of the people.