There Are Three Scenarios: The Kremlin Has Given The "signal"
- 4.03.2026, 8:53
How long is the RF going to fight against Ukraine?
Russia has decided on the key scenarios for the upcoming elections to the Russian State Duma, which will be held this September. All of them are in one way or another tied to the Russian-Ukrainian war - and differ only in the degree of "success" of fighting for Russia.
Similar planning confirms: until the fall of 2026, Moscow does not consider the option of ending the war, and if the U.S. suddenly reaches a "peace agreement" - the Kremlin is sure that it will "sell" it to the Russians as an absolute "victory". This is according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The Kremlin is going to go to war against Ukraine until at least the fall
Insiders from the Kremlin testify: Russia's top leadership expects the Russian-Ukrainian war to last until at least September of this year, when Russia will hold elections to the State Duma.
That is, analysts note, from a publication in one of the Russian Telegram channels specializing in the "internal kitchen" of the Kremlin, it became known that the Russian Presidential Administration held a seminar for vice-governors on domestic policy to identify key scenarios related to the upcoming elections. And it said that election planning would center on Russia's progress in a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
"An insider source claimed that the Presidential Administration outlined three scenarios, all centered around the idea that the war would still be ongoing at the time of the election. However, the scenarios differed in the degree to which Russia achieved strategic success in the war or faced pressure for greater public support for the war. The source argued that the "most likely scenario" was one in which the current wartime dynamics were maintained and the military and economic spheres did not require "radical changes," ISW noted.
The source's message, the analysts added, echoed information ISW had already recorded.
"ISW has recently observed similar reports of the Kremlin's efforts to incorporate protracted war into its political agenda ahead of the upcoming elections, particularly support for candidates who strongly support war and targeted media campaigns focused on the war effort as a marker of national unity. These insider statements suggest that the Kremlin plans to continue the war at least until September, but probably much longer," the analysts said.
At the same time, they do not rule out the possibility that Moscow is also contemplating the option of a US-brokered peace deal. But the Kremlin may be confident that it can "easily portray a potential peace settlement before September as a victory for the Russian population" - and for that reason is not wasting time and effort in creating a plan for such a scenario.