"Lukashenko Is Being Bombarded From All Sides."
- 4.03.2026, 9:11
The dictator is really scared.
Political analyst of the Pozirk news agency Alexander Klaskovsky in his commentary to "Filin" spoke about the potential threats between which the ruler of Belarus is now maneuvering.
- Lukashenko really reacted only a day after the news of Khamenei's death, and much more mildly than Putin (the ruler of the Russian Federation called his death "a murder committed with a cynical violation of all norms of human morality and international law" - ed.), - says Alexander Klaskovsky about what can be the reason for the behavior of the Belarusian ruler in recent days. - The ruler's message outlines only some anonymous enemies, a "treacherous attack", but it's not clear whose it is.
Everything is maximally obscured. I believe that Lukashenko and his cronies took a long time to choose the words.
On the one hand, it was necessary to fulfill some minimum in terms of condolences, after all, there is a long and tight partnership with the Iranian regime. And it is not so much trade as ideological affinity.
Lukashenko himself used to be one of the ardent denouncers of the "American hegemon" and the "American military".
He is known to have a special thing for the tragic end of dictators. Apparently, Lukashenko projects onto himself their fates - Milosevic, Hussein, and Gaddafi.
He once sheltered Bakiyev, the deposed president of Kyrgyzstan. And on Maduro, he proposed the "perfect plan," but Washington did not listen to him.
On the other hand, Lukashenko's reaction has been belated and rather muted because he has to step on the throat of his own song. He is afraid of angering Trump.
And he would not want to disrupt negotiations on the so-called "grand bargain," which may involve further lifting of U.S. sanctions.
With the Iranians, it seems that Trump was also engaged in a dialog, negotiations were going on in Geneva, and there were even words that the parties were approaching some kind of deal. And suddenly, just a couple of days later, this blow.
That is, Lukashenko sees that Trump is irascible and unpredictable. He didn't like the way the negotiations were going, he thought the Iranians were making little concessions and struck.
- It's unlikely that such a thing is possible with Belarus.
- Of course, Trump won't bomb Minsk or Drozdy or send his special forces to seize them. But he can still do harm.
Lukashenko is also sort of negotiating with the Americans. And in this context, composing a message on Khamenei's death is only a technical moment.
But how to behave further in these negotiations? Lukashenko wants to get the maximum - both the lifting of sanctions and, perhaps, for Washington to press Lithuania on the transit of potassium.
And also the thirst for legitimization, not just trade - sanctions in exchange for prisoners of the regime. He has this "illegitimacy complex," after all.
Lukashenko doesn't want to lose the coveted attention from Trump, either. And how he wanted to fly to the summit of the Peace Council! But from Moscow, as you know, slowed down. And now he sees: if you are very stubborn, Trump may flare up.
Another unpleasant factor is that just the day before Zelensky toughened his policy towards his regime. It turns out that Lukashenko is now encircled from all sides.
In addition, I think that the Iranian events could make the ruler think about how stable his regime is. Because the regime of the ayatollahs cannot be called a personalist dictatorship.
There was a spiritual leader, a president, a parliament, and two armies, including the IRGC, created specially in case of various upheavals.
And in Belarus there is a personalist dictatorship: if Lukashenko disappears, everything will fall apart. That is, he chased after unlimited power, and in the end he created a system that is held on a single nail.
- The associates, you once said, are unlikely to save Lukashenko. We have seen similar things, by the way, in the liquidation of other dictators. We also see that Putin is not rushing to the aid of any of his friends either.
- Putin is unlikely to save Lukashenko. But Belarus is a strategic bridgehead or "balcony" as they call it. That is, the Russians will not fight for Lukashenko personally, but they do not want to cede this territory, of course.
And the Kremlin may indeed have its own scenario, if they think that Lukashenko is too decrepit or too much on the Western vector, for example.
They can conduct their own special operation and people with pro-Russian brains who surround the ruler will easily give him up. I would also remind about Moscow's recent signals, which sounded like hints: allegedly the West wants to organize a new coup in Belarus.
I do not exclude that Moscow thus unwittingly gives out its plan, which I call "Belarusian Gleiwitz". That is, Russian special services can provoke some incident and then solve the issue of the transit of power in Belarus in their favor.
- You have listed several factors that Lukashenko may consider as a potential threat. Which of them is the most likely, in your opinion?
- Regarding Trump, I repeat, Lukashenko is hardly afraid of a direct strike or some kind of operation. Rather, he is afraid of lost profits, risking to remain a pariah, not respected in the West. Suddenly a ray of hope shone and now it may go out.
There is reason to fear the Ukrainians. Because they have crossed the red lines drawn by Moscow more than once: when they entered the territory of the Russian Federation, and when they began to strike thousands of kilometers deep into Russia.
Lukashenko may have thought that there were unspoken agreements with Kiev, but apparently now Putin is pushing him to make Belarus a greater threat to Ukraine.
With his "Oreshnik" and other things, he is setting Lukashenko up for a retaliatory strike. This cannot be ignored, especially knowing how much the Ukrainians have progressed in terms of drones and created their own missile.
And Putin is no longer so much afraid of him in terms of losing power as of losing his life. Another thing is that it is his way of existence to twist and maneuver.
But now Lukashenko has gone too far. Most likely, he realizes that with the terrible thirst for power it is time to think about saving himself and his family.
He will no longer be able to just sit on the throne and command everyone. Their family clan has accumulated great wealth, has grown, there are already a lot of grandchildren.
And now Lukashenko has made such a mess that he has to maneuver very hard to somehow survive physically, and I think he is already afraid for his loved ones. Especially watching what happens to the family members of dictators who have been eliminated.