Political Analyst: Iran's Regime Is On Its Last Breath

• 4.03.2026, 16:28

The Axis of Evil is losing an important ally.

The US and Israel liquidated Ali Khamenei and struck key sites of the Iranian regime. What has been achieved so far and what are the ultimate goals of this operation?

About this, Charter97.org spoke with Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO, Bratislava) Grigory Mesežnikov:

- It seems to me that this operation has several ultimate goals. Some of them are explicitly stated, some of them, it seems to me, remain hidden, but they actually exist. At a minimum, we can talk about two strategic objectives.

First, to completely destroy the capability that would allow Iran to threaten nuclear weapons using ballistic missiles. I think that may even be the primary objective. And the second goal, although it hasn't been officially announced, is regime change. It is clear that regime change is a complicated thing. Israel itself is hardly capable of accomplishing it. The U.S., I think, has the potential to do that, but it requires political will.

The rhetoric of even Trump himself suggests that this is not just about eliminating the first threat from Iran. I think there is a realization that this regime is unlikely to be negotiated with, and so unless it changes, it will be a continuing threat. Israel understands that, of course, absolutely well. But for Israel to achieve regime change in a country of 90 million people, I think, is simply impossible. But we can already talk about the results: in any case, what has been achieved is, of course, the weakening of the regime. I think that the potential they have left has begun to be gradually exhausted as a result of the attacks and bombings.

- How could this operation affect world politics and economy? What could be its consequences?"

-I think that in the strategic perspective, in the long-term horizon, if the regime in Iran ceases to exist, if it ceases to support the network of terrorism that it has created, if it does not do what it has done so far - it will change the situation in a positive direction.

It was not only threatening Israel - it is clear that it was threatening the West as well. He was part of a coalition of evil along with Russia, Venezuela and North Korea. Behind them, as they say, China loomed as well. China, in fact, supports this system, although it may not be directly part of this axis of evil itself. There are specialists and experts who believe that in principle they have already become part of it, but I would be more cautious here.

So in the long term, I think that the situation will improve, and the Middle East will become a less tense and more stable region. Iran will have an opportunity to join the integration processes around the world. It is clear that serious geopolitical changes are taking place now, but nevertheless Iran is a state with good potential. If the international economic blockade of Iran stops, I think that Iran will be able to integrate into the world economy.

As for the short-term perspective, we can see now that Iran is trying to draw Arab countries into this war. Of course, it is making a terrible mistake, but this is to be expected, because this regime, I think, is already, as they say, on its last breath.

That is, even if formally this regime remains, even if formally the name "Islamic Republic" remains, although it is difficult for me to imagine, but let's assume that there will be some transitional period, it will no longer be the regime that allowed itself to kill tens of thousands of people in the streets for a few days and to finance essentially all Middle Eastern terrorism.

There will probably be uncertainty now about the outcome of this war and who might get involved.

To be honest, I myself thought that none of this would happen, that this regime had at least some mechanisms for self-preservation. But if now America and Israel are actually joined by the Sunni Arab coalition, and also Europe - Germany and France - in principle can support this in some way, maybe not send troops directly, but take certain steps - then we can expect some tension until this war is over. But Iran will absolutely come out of this war with a defeat.

- How could the US and Israeli operation affect aid to Ukraine? Will the new conflict weaken support for Kiev or, on the contrary, increase pressure on Russia's allies?"

- See, the point here is that the balance of power with regard to Israel and Ukraine does differ in the U.S. administration. But objectively, the fact that the axis of evil will now weaken, I think, of course, will be in favor of Ukraine, without any doubt.

Iran will fall out of this chain of dictatorial regimes and out of the chain of support for Russia. It's not just about the Shahed drones, but other forms of support from Iran. So it was certainly helping Russia. So from that point of view, it will certainly be in favor of Ukraine.

Generally, this ayatollah regime has the blood of Ukrainian citizens on its hands. Hundreds, maybe thousands of people were killed in the initial phase of the war by Iranian drones. Even the fact that Shaheds are now being produced in Russia under Iranian license is also, in fact, Iranian support. In addition, Russia and Iran have cooperated in circumventing sanctions: mutual political and diplomatic support and more. So for Ukraine, of course, it will be important.

But it should be understood that certain resources that could be used in Ukraine, perhaps temporarily - I hope it is temporarily - will be used in this war in the Middle East. It is difficult for me to assess this, but there are already opinions that the sooner this war ends and the more defeating the result for Iran, the more positive it will be for Ukraine.

Europe, I think, will support Ukraine the same way as before. It seems to me that there should be no changes there.As for the US - we'll see. In any case, the US is still supplying Ukraine with military equipment, weapons and so on for European money, even if not for free. If this continues, I think that even in the short term Ukraine should not lose anything because of this war.