The Dollar Is Rapidly Appreciating
- 9.03.2026, 12:19
What will happen to the courses in mid-March.
Following the results of last week in the Belarusian fx market, the U.S. dollar exchange rate recovered all the losses of the first two months of 2026 and went into plus by 0.80% by the beginning of the year. How the conflict in the Middle East disperses the exchange rates and what values can be reaped in mid-March, tells in an article for myfin.by financial analyst Mikhail Grachev.
The closing rate on Friday, March 6, amounted to USD/BYN 2.9259, beating our previous forecast. In total, the dollar climbed +2.53% in value over the past week. The dollar trading volume on the BCSE amounted to $83.834 million, which is approximately in line with the average volume level.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian currency market last week naturally lost value and the growth of the ruble decreased to +0.46% by the beginning of the year. The closing rate of the week amounted to RUB/BYN 3.7230 per 100 Russian rubles. In total, the ruble lost -0.69% during the week, with the trading volume of Br33,113.930 million. This is the maximum trading volume of the ruble since the end of 2024, which indicates the high demand for the Russian currency on the part of the Belarusian economy.
The U.S. dollar rate in the Russian financial market also rose maximally during the week since the beginning of this year. The closing rate of last week amounted to Br79.0, while during trading on Friday, March 6, the dollar was rising to Br79.30 at the moment. The dollar price growth in the domestic market is due to a combination of external and internal factors.
The first includes the general strengthening of the U.S. dollar in the global market on the background of the military conflict in the Middle East. There is no light at the end of the tunnel, so it is highly probable that this factor will remain in force.
The internal factor that caused the ruble depreciation is the joint decision of the financial authorities of Russia to suspend the sale of currency in the domestic market. The RF Ministry of Finance intends to change the cut-off price of the benchmark Brent oil to replenish the National Welfare Fund, which, due to the growing budget deficit in the first two months of this year, lost a considerable amount of money.
The Bank of Russia is generally cautious about the idea that the additional funds, which may arise from the lowering of the oil cut-off price, will not enter the consumer market in the form of growth in the loan portfolio. Otherwise, all the Central Bank's efforts to curb inflation will go to waste and will require maintaining the key rate at the current level.
Oil price also sets a record
Another outcome of the developing military confrontation in the Middle East has been a rise in the price of oil. By the end of last week, Brent was climbing to $94.64 a barrel, the highest since October 2023. Many analysts of the commodity market believe that it is quite possible to reach the level of $100 dollars per barrel. In the European retail market, the cost of motor fuel has risen to the maximum values over the past two years, which will automatically lead to the unwinding of the inflationary spiral and weakening of the euro currency at the end of March.
In general, given the above, we can assume that the U.S. dollar rate in the Belarusian currency market has chances for further growth this week. If the dollar strengthens in the Russian market up to Br82.0, the "buck" will tend to Br3.
But with the final implementation of the plan of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation to fill the National Wealth Fund, sales of foreign currency will return to the market, which will lead to a weakening of the dollar. Besides, annual tax payments of oil and gas exporters are due at the end of March, which will also increase the demand for ruble liquidity. Thus, in the second half of March, the return of currency swings in the direction of strengthening the ruble is not excluded.
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