Hungary's Election: Why Magyar Can Beat Orbán
- 12.04.2026, 10:57
The opposition leader's success is due to the fact that he has scrutinized the mistakes of his predecessors.
Hungary's parliamentary elections are taking place on May 12, with the polls leading the party of Peter Magyar, a politician who has gone from a mid-level civil servant to a major threat to the government of Viktor Orban, writes Politico.
He led the Tisa party in 2024 and has managed to unite voters who seek an end to the Fidesz party's 16-year rule. A Magyar victory could reshape Hungary's role in Europe, reduce its commitment to Moscow and restore its position as a predictable partner in the EU and NATO.
Magyar's political capital is tied to his past. He grew up in a post-communist, Christian-democratic intellectual environment: his father was a lawyer, his mother a high-ranking Supreme Court official, and his grandfather a television legal commentator.
While a student in Germany, Magyar met the current prime minister's chief of staff, Gergely Gulyás, and joined Orbán's Fidesz party. For a long time, Magyar remained in the shadows, while his ex-wife Judit Varga rose to the position of justice minister in Orban's government.
Magyar repeatedly tried to get top positions in the government, but he failed. "Ministers always turned him down because he was too ambitious and independent," said Miklos Sykesd, a political scientist at the University of Copenhagen.
The break with the system came after Magyar secretly recorded then-wife Judit Varga in January 2023. On the tapes, she spoke about officials' interference in a corruption case. Although Magyar and Varga divorced in March of that year, he kept the recording for months as "insurance" in case of conflict with the regime.
The opportunity came in February 2024, when Varga and President Katalin Novak were forced to resign because of a sex scandal surrounding an orphanage in the town of Bitschke. Magyar then released an audio recording and publicly accused the government of systemic corruption.
"His appeal is that he is seen as an insider who previously knew these people, sat in the front row of Orban's system," argues Katalin Cseh, a non-factional member of the Hungarian parliament.
The political success of Magyar's campaign is due to the fact that he has carefully studied the mistakes of his predecessors, particularly Peter Marky-Zai, who was defeated by Orban in 2022, Politico notes.
Marky-Zai's mistake was his statement before the Russian invasion in 2022 that Hungary could send soldiers to Ukraine if NATO so decides. This phrase was used by the pro-government media to accuse the opposition of wanting to drag the country into war. Having learned from this, Magyar has avoided debates about international support for Ukraine: he opposes Kiev's accelerated EU membership and arms supplies.
Another strategic move is the rejection of broad coalitions. Instead, Magyar forced all other opposition parties to withdraw their candidates, accusing them of helping Orban if he refused. In particular, he feared that people with political backgrounds might turn out to be saboteurs who were secretly collaborating with Orbán.
Candidates who refused to withdraw claim they faced online harassment from Tisa supporters, and Magyar's party itself additionally challenged the registration of some competitors in court.
To protect against Fidesz media attacks, Magyar introduced control and centralization over communications within his own party. In particular, he imposed a ban on communicating with the media for most party members. Restricting party communication channels is very sensible as it leaves less ground for criticism, falsified and manipulated records, argues Marky-Zai.
This style of leadership, however, is a cause for concern even among associates. The Tisa party began as a dynamic "startup", later beginning to adopt the traits of the Fidesz party. "The culture within the party has become something similar - based on loyalty rather than results," said Deje Farkash, an entrepreneur and co-founder of the Tisa Party. Magyar himself called his party a "one-actor theater" in 2024.
Hungarians are ready to vote "even for a goat"
Magyar's popularity has grown not only because of his rhetoric, but also because of Hungary's economic weakness, high inflation and cost-of-living crisis. People are outraged because of widespread government corruption.
For many Hungarians, Magyar has become a protest tool. "We are not voting for Tisa, we are voting against Fidesz". Hungarians at this stage would vote for the goat if it ran," said Timea Szabo, a member of the Hungarian parliament from the Green Party.
At the same time, Magyar demonstrates exceptional stamina, able to tour up to six cities a day and effectively using social media to reach out directly to voters. "He speaks the language of algorithms but builds trust personally," explained Marton Hajdu, head of EU affairs for the Tisa party and a candidate for parliament.
Magyar is now the most likely candidate to succeed Orbán. But his success hinges on the expectation of rapid change: sending corrupt officials to jail and restoring democracy. The pressure on him is high.
"These waves are also ready to crush him if he doesn't fulfill his promises," Marky-Zai warned. However, if Magyar succeeds, former opposition leaders are even promising to erect a monument to him, Politico noted.