Latvian Intelligence: Putin Is Being Deceived By His Inner Circle

• 13.04.2026, 9:36

He gets distorted data about the economy.

Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin probably receives distorted information about the real state of the Russian economy. At the same time, Western sanctions cannot quickly change Moscow's foreign policy course, but in the long term they remain one of the most effective tools of pressure. This is told in a report by the Latvian Constitution Protection Bureau.

According to Latvian intelligence, sanctions have already caused significant damage to the Russian economy and will continue to limit its development. In particular, from 2022 to 2025, Russia had to spend an additional $130 billion to purchase sub-sanctioned Western goods through bypass schemes.

By 2030, the cumulative losses from sanctions may amount to at least $136 billion, but Riga considers these estimates understated.

The report notes that the restrictions have already hit key industries. For example, exports of iron ore have fallen by 40%, ferrous metals by 20%, chemical products by 35%, and wood and pulp by almost 50% compared to the period before the full-scale war against Ukraine.

Russia has lost some Western markets and by 2026 has not been able to find a full-fledged replacement for them. According to domestic estimates, it will not be possible to compensate for these losses for at least the next five years.

In addition, by 2030, total losses in foreign trade may reach $175.5 billion, and the energy sector risks losing more than $216 billion if sanctions are tightened and Russian energy purchases are further reduced.

At the same time, Latvian intelligence emphasizes that despite the growing economic pressure, the Russian leadership does not intend to change the current foreign policy course.

The document also says that a possible easing or lifting of sanctions could increase the threat from Russia, as the freed up resources could be used for military rearmament and support for anti-Western forces.