"Lukashenko Risks Getting His Ass Kicked."

• 14.04.2026, 16:33

The dictator has no control over an important process.

Lithuania has recorded a record number of attempts to violate the border on the part of Belarus since November last year, according to the analysis conducted by "Pozirkom". Recall that recently the Lithuanian side put forward conditions for the start of negotiations with Lukashenko's regime, among which - the end of the migration crisis.

Why the Belarusian authorities do not fulfill the conditions of the Lithuanian side and how it may affect relations with the Americans, who are interested in it? "Filin" discussed these questions with Alexander Klaskovsky, a political analyst of the "Pozirk" news agency.

- I think Lukashenko influences this situation. When talking about the European sanctions, he repeatedly said: "You, Europeans, strangle me with sanctions and want me to catch illegal immigrants - so I won't do it. Thus, he made it clear that he simply turns a blind eye to the fact that these illegals are trying to get to the EU through Belarus," Klaskovsky noted.

- But now the question really arises to what extent Lukashenko controls the situation: in winter there were almost no such attempts, but it may have been due to the cold weather, but now we see that they have become more frequent.

And here we can consider several versions. The first one is that Lukashenko really does not fully influence the process of storming the EU borders.

Perhaps the border security is not organized as exemplary as it seems. Lukashenko likes to emphasize that he himself was a border guard and attaches great importance to these troops. Nevertheless, there are probably holes on the border, and migrants do get through.

In addition, over the years of the policy of hybrid warfare against the EU, a layer of people (possibly in shoulder straps) has probably formed who profit from this illegal business.

The second version, the political analyst argues, is that the flow of migrants to Belarus may be organized by Moscow. It's not difficult, given the open border with Russia and the bilateral agreement on mutual recognition of visas.

- Moscow is not favorable for Minsk's relations with the West to improve. In particular, to create better conditions for the sale of potash. After all, Belarus and Russia compete on the potash market.

But there is another version:

- Lukashenko may intentionally raise the stakes in the game with Vilnius with the participation of Washington. This is his usual manner in foreign policy, when he escalates the situation and raises the level of tension, so that then, having rolled back a bit, he can present it as a big concession. This is how he gained political prisoners and now he trades them, thus getting the US sanctions lifted.

I do not rule out that Lukashenko has a hope that the US and Trump's special envoy Cole (who openly says that the US needs the transit of potash fertilizers through Klaipeda), in the ruler's language, will "bend" the Lithuanian leadership and force it to accept these conditions.

Lukashenko's logic is probably the following: "you won't go anywhere, I'm doing what I want, mocking you, and you will be forced to meet me anyway under American pressure". Whether this is true or not - we will see only experimentally after some time.

Since the Lithuanians put forward conditions, they gave Lukashenko four weeks, but we see that the fulfillment of these conditions to a certain extent is not.

Lithuanian politicians in this situation do not want to lose face and show that they are bowing to pressure from Washington. But this is a separate topic, as Lithuania is highly dependent on the US.

- But how can the American side react to this "increase in rates"? Will they put pressure on Lithuania or on Lukashenko?"

- I think if Lukashenko does it intentionally, he is taking a risk. Because Cole emphasized in his interviews that he told him: say, stop doing these things. So he risks getting a slap on the wrist during Cole's next visit to Minsk.

Another thing is if the story that we have a "locked border" is not true and the border has a hole in it. In that case, it's a tragic situation for Lukashenko.

Because prerequisites for a breakthrough in the Lithuanian direction are created, and it turns out that the dictator, who supposedly controls everything in his country, cannot control the process that is important for the prospects of Belarus.