Business Insider: The Kremlin Has Suffered Huge Losses
- 16.04.2026, 11:06
Russia overpaid $130 billion because of sanctions.
Russia has spent an additional $130 billion to buy goods to circumvent Western sanctions due to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, writes Business Insider. Latvian analysts from the Constitution Protection Bureau (SAB) estimate that in 2022-2025, Russia on average overpaid $32.5 billion annually for imports of Western goods due to sanctions.
It is noted that these costs relate only to goods that Russia managed to acquire through alternative channels, and do not take into account cases where no substitute could be found.
International sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine have also resulted in the loss of hundreds of billions of dollars due to the loss of export markets and the freezing of assets by Western banks.
At the same time, according to analysts, Russian government agencies domestically forecast further deterioration of the economic situation, despite public statements by the authorities that "the economy is successfully adapting to the impact of Western sanctions."
In particular, one domestic forecast suggests additional foreign trade losses of $136 billion through 2030 solely due to Western sanctions. Another forecast indicates that a prolonged reduction in trade with Europe will amount to about $70 billion of these losses.
The risks for the energy sector are assessed separately. In case of tougher sanctions, Russia's losses may reach $216.5 billion over the next five years. Meanwhile, the oil and gas sector typically accounts for about 15-20% of Russia's GDP and nearly a third of federal revenues.
In addition, Russia faces a 40% drop in iron ore exports between 2021 and 2025, while timber and pulp exports fall by about 50%.
"Lifting sanctions would significantly increase the threat Russia poses not only to Ukraine and Europe, but also globally," the analysts wrote, noting that the Kremlin would thus be given free rein to help Iran, North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba.