Elections In Bulgaria: Will The "new Orban" Be Able To Come To Power?
- 19.04.2026, 14:57
Voting in the early parliamentary elections takes place today.
A number of analysts and former diplomats fear Moscow's interference in Bulgaria's parliamentary elections on Sunday, April 19, as the Kremlin wants to maintain its influence within the European Union.
The The Washington Post (WP) writes about it.
The publication emphasizes that after the crushing loss of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in the parliamentary elections held on April 12, the elections in Bulgaria have gained additional importance for Moscow.
Even a few months before the April 19 vote, a network of TikTok and Facebook accounts actively promoted the newly created party of Rumen Radev, a Kremlin-loyal candidate for the post of prime minister of Bulgaria, WP recalls.
Relying on data from Sensika Technologies, a company that tracks online content, the newspaper notes that accounts promoting the hashtag #rumenradev published 60 times more posts than those promoting Radev's closest rival, the Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria (GERB) party, and garnered more than 5.5 million views.
In turn, analysts, former diplomats and a European intelligence official say they fear the Kremlin's actions as Moscow aims to maintain influence in the EU, especially after Orban's loss.
In comments to WP, Bulgaria's former ambassador to Russia Ilian Vasilev indicated that the Russians are extremely "interested in at least partially compensating for Orban's loss in Hungary."
He also admitted that Moscow is hoping that Bulgaria will help fill the vacuum.
According to analysts, Radev, who has opposed aid to Ukraine while saying he wants to restore relations with Moscow, is seen as a new chance for the Kremlin to strengthen its position in the EU.
Such as Natali Tocci, director of the Institute of International Relations (Italy), Natali Tocci warned that the Kremlin intends to "redouble its efforts to create new networks."
"And Bulgaria has always been a relatively easy target," she added.
The risks are seen as so real that Bulgaria's Foreign Ministry has set up a special unit in coordination with the European Commission to deal with potential Russian interference.
A European intelligence official said Radev's campaign had the support of a network of former high-ranking Bulgarian military officers with ties to Russian military intelligence, promoting his views against Ukraine, WP writes.
For their part, former senior Bulgarian government officials warn that Rumen Radev has long been close to the Kremlin. But he has adopted a much more pro-Russian stance than former Bulgarian leaders who sought the Kremlin's support while pushing Bulgaria toward ever-closer integration with the West.
The director of the Center for the Study of Democracy, Martin Vladimirov, said it is likely that Rumen Radev "will try to position himself in the EU as the new Orban."
As analysts suggest, however, Radev is unlikely to represent as influential a force as Orban in defending Moscow's interests in the EU.
So, according to Ivan Krustev, a Bulgarian political scientist working in Vienna, Austria, Rumen Radev will not block anything. Radev, the political scientist pointed out, will not have his own government.
"It takes quite a lot of power to oppose 26 member states. Bulgaria could easily join the pro-Russian bloc. The problem is who will lead this bloc," noted Krastev.
In turn, Martin Vladimirov pointed out that Bulgarian politicians are generally very cautious because of their dependence on EU funding, without which they do not want to be left behind.
On Sunday, April 19, Bulgaria holds parliamentary elections - already the eighth in the last five years. Their favorite is the newly formed Progressive Bulgaria party of former President Rumen Radev, who is an opponent of military aid to Ukraine and the EU's rejection of Russian oil and gas.
At the end of the vote in Bulgaria should elect 240 deputies to the National Assembly. Fourteen parties and 10 coalitions are running in the election. None of them is expected to win a mono-majority (121 seats) in parliament. The threshold to enter the parliament is 4% of votes.
The elections in Bulgaria are early and are the result of a long political crisis with a number of short-lived governments.