ISW Refuted Gerasimov's Claims
- 2.04.2026, 10:21
The Russian Defense Ministry lied.
On April 1, for the third time during the full-scale invasion, the Russian Defense Ministry said that Russian troops had allegedly captured the entire Luhansk region. Whether this claim is true is analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
The ISW analysts remind us that Russian forces have controlled most of Luhansk Oblast since as early as October 2022. However, as of April 1, 2026, evidence that ISW has gathered from open sources estimates that Russian forces now control 99.84% of Luhansk Oblast, but have not captured the settlements of Nadiya and Novoogorovka, located east of Borovoy, Kharkiv Oblast. [Both of these settlements remain a free "green" zone on DeepState maps as well - editor's note]
ISW notes that Russian officials have already repeatedly declared the full capture of Luhansk Oblast during the years of war. Back in July 2022, then-Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu first claimed that Russian forces had captured the region. And Leonid Pasechnik, the Kremlin's puppet in the occupied part of Luhansk region, said the same thing again in June 2025. Later, in October 2025, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin claimed that Ukrainian troops hold positions in only 0.13% of Luhansk Oblast.
For their part, ISW experts explain that Russian troops have controlled most of Luhansk Oblast since the fall of 2022, when the front line in the area stabilized after Ukraine's Kharkiv counteroffensive. Therefore, the Kremlin's statements in 2025 and 2026 about the alleged full capture of the region exaggerate minor changes on the frontline in Luhansk Oblast in order to create the false impression that occupation troops are advancing rapidly in different parts of the battlefield.
These exaggerated Kremlin statements about the capture of Luhansk Oblast are part of a broader coordinated Russian information campaign, emphasizes the Institute for the Study of War. The goal of this campaign is to create a false sense of urgency in order to force Ukraine to cede unoccupied parts of the Donetsk region. Therefore, the Russian Defense Ministry's new statement about the alleged full capture of Luhansk Oblast is part of the Kremlin's cognitive warfare to claim Ukrainian defenses are "on the verge of collapse" and to encourage the United States and other partners of Kiev to force Ukraine to unreasonably cede territory that Russian forces are unlikely to be able to take by force in the medium term - if at all.