Natalia Radina: Belarusians Will Be Grateful To Zelensky If Lukashenko Is Really Kidnapped
- 20.04.2026, 12:13
It's getting harder and harder for a dictator to hold on to power.
President Vladimir Zelensky said that according to Ukrainian intelligence, roads to the territory of Ukraine and artillery positions are being built on the border of Belarus.
At the same time in our country reserve officers are being called up for service.
Is there really a threat to Ukraine from the territory of Belarus? What is behind Lukashenko's words about a "grand bargain" with the United States? How can Kiev help change the power in Belarus?"
About this and more in an interview with Ukrainian Radio NV was told by the editor-in-chief of the website Charter97.org Natalya Radina.
The Belarusian journalist believes that Russia currently has no resources for a new offensive from our country:
- The main goal is an attempt to keep Ukraine in tension so that Kiev keeps its troops on the border with Belarus and they are not sent to Donbass, where the main Russian forces are located.
The main alarm signals - mass mobilization, not just levies, restrictions on men leaving, deployment of strike groups - we have not yet seen.
If Putin decides today to open a second front against Ukraine (a number of experts, including former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba), Russia will need significantly more resources than the Belarusian army. First of all, the Belarusian army is relatively small, and secondly, it is not capable, it has not participated in any military operations.
If it is still sent to Ukraine, Russian servicemen will be included with it. Does Russia have such resources today? I doubt it, frankly. Looking at how the hostilities in Donbass are developing and what is happening in Russia itself, it is obvious that Russia does not have such capabilities today.
Can Lukashenko hinder Russia's plans? Natalia Radina draws attention to the total dependence of the Belarusian dictator on the Kremlin:
- Lukashenko finally said goodbye to his subjectivity in 2020, when, with the help of Russia, he suppressed a mass uprising of Belarusians in the country after the presidential election, which he lost miserably. Since then, Lukashenko has been held hostage by Putin. He is absolutely dependent on him - both 2022 and the invasion of Russian troops into Ukraine from the territory of Belarus confirmed it. We remember how Lukashenko himself, his officials, including the Minister of Defense, assured the Ukrainian side that there would be no invasion of your country from the territory of Belarus, but it happened and it shows that Lukashenko is not independent.
That is why you should not be guided by any of his statements and believe him. Of course, he would like everyone to listen to him. Hence these loud statements that "war is inevitable", that "we are about to be attacked both from Ukraine and NATO countries", and that "we are ready for an immediate response", that "we have nuclear missiles" and so on. It seems to me that these are nothing more than loud words and an attempt to attract attention.
The editor-in-chief of Charter97.org pointed out the root causes of the dictator's militaristic rhetoric:
- In fact, two things are extremely important for Lukashenko today. First, to stay in power himself. This is not so easy, given that the Belarusian people are completely disloyal to the dictator. Today Lukashenko holds on to power solely by force. He needs resources to maintain all the punitive structures that exist in Belarus today and terrorize the population. This money is given to Lukashenko by Russia.
The second point, which is extremely important to him, is the removal of Western sanctions, which were imposed both in 2020, after the suppression of the people's revolution, and in 2022, after the Belarusian regime entered the war against Ukraine. And today, he is trying through talks with President Trump, through flirting with the United States, through threats to Ukraine, through threats to European countries, to bargain for the lifting of sanctions.
Lukashenko has repeatedly declared a "big deal" with the United States. What is behind these words of the dictator? Natalia Radina says that only Lukashenko is talking about this "deal" so far, but does not rule out that the American president may make certain arrangements with the dictator:
- We understand that President Trump is hardly much interested in the fate of political prisoners. He is primarily a businessman who is focused on direct profit. Trump is most likely interested in potash fertilizers in Belarus. And by "big deal" Lukashenko probably also means the sale of one of the potash enterprises to the United States.
This is the Nizhyn Mining and Processing Combine, which, like Belaruskali, the largest Belarusian enterprise for the production of potash fertilizers, is located in Minsk region.
But this combine is in an unfinished state. Perhaps we are talking directly about the sale of this enterprise to the United States. Perhaps for Trump it is something like a rare earth metals deal with Ukraine. Apparently, Lukashenko is counting on the fact that he can interest the US president in this unfinished potash combine. In exchange, I think, he will demand the complete lifting of sanctions not only by the US, but also by the European Union.
Because the lifting of sanctions by Europe is what the Belarusian dictator is trying to achieve. Fortunately, so far without success. The sanctions that the European Union is now imposing on Belarus have a direct impact on the situation. The costs are huge, as the EU has always been the largest trade partner of Belarus, along with Russia. And in some years, in general, trade with the EU was even more active than with Russia. For Belarus, of course, the loss of the European market, especially for oil products and the same potash and nitrogen fertilizers (the main export items of Belarus), is very significant. And so, of course, Lukashenko would like very much to return to the former active trade with Europe, since the very dependence on Russia, which has increased in recent years, still does not make up for the shortage of funds resulting from Western sanctions.
The host asked a question about the change in Kiev's rhetoric towards Lukashenko's regime and a possible meeting between Vladimir Zelensky and Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. Natalia Radina urges Ukraine to move from symbolic gestures to a real strategy towards Belarus:
- As far as I understand, President Zelensky's meeting with former presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovska has been postponed. Her visit to Kiev was planned, but it was canceled and postponed indefinitely. Frankly speaking, I don't see any benefits from this meeting yet. I don't understand how it can bring Belarus closer to liberation today.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaia had a lot of similar meetings with European leaders, as well as US President Joe Biden. However, the situation in Belarus remains just as difficult.
It seems to me that today it is more important for Ukraine to work together with Europe on a real strategy regarding Belarus. And to think how to wrest this military bridgehead, which, unfortunately, my country has turned into, from Putin's clutches. And there should be a real strategy.
In recent years, including Ukraine, many opportunities to change the situation in Belarus have been missed. More support in 2020 was needed. There was no need to buy so much oil products from Belarus after the suppression of the revolution. It was possible to meet with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya at that time, it made sense. It was necessary to impose tough sanctions against Lukashenko's regime, not only in 2022, when the war had already started. And already in 2022 it was necessary, of course, to actively support the Belarusian volunteer movement. To create a serious military unit on the basis of Kalinowski's regiment. To prepare Belarusians for special operations on the territory of Belarus, for the liberation of their own country. And then, believe me, many Belarusians would have gone to Ukraine. This was not done. Therefore, it seems to me, it is now very important to work on the mistakes.
Natalya Radina believes that changes in Belarus can be achieved, among other things, by powerful pressure on Russia:
- I agree with President Zelensky that such a policy of the West, when the U.S. extends the easing of sanctions against Russian oil, encourages the war that Russia is waging today against Ukraine, encourages the occupation of Belarus, which is taking place today, the Kremlin's support of the pro-Russian puppet Lukashenko.
That is why we need even tougher, total pressure on Russia, support for Ukraine - comprehensive, military, financial, the ability to hit not only drones, but also long-range missiles on the entire territory of Russia, including Moscow. This is a real chance for Ukraine to win and Belarus to become free.
How should Ukraine respond to provocations from Lukashenko's regime? Natalia Radina believes that Kiev should warn the Belarusian dictator about the subsequent military response:
- Today we should very clearly tell Lukashenko that if provocations from the territory of Belarus continue, if missiles are still aimed at Ukraine from the Belarusian territory, there will be a response. We know that there are two Russian military bases on the territory of Belarus - a radar station in Gantsevichy and a communication center of the Russian Navy in Vileika.
If the Belarusian authorities continue to provide airspace for missiles and drones, if stations and repeaters that point drones at Ukraine are placed on the territory of Belarus, if Belarusian operators provide roaming for Russian drones, this will be a reason for the AFU to retaliate.
And here, it seems to me, it is better not to joke about Lukashenko being kidnapped, but to say clearly and clearly that there will be responses, there will be strikes not only on oil refineries, there will be strikes on military facilities, and just try to make a move towards Ukraine.
But if we talk seriously about what the president of Ukraine said about Lukashenko and his kidnapping on the example of Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, then the Belarusians will be very grateful to Ukraine if it happens..