Fish-farming Woe Lukashenko
- 24.04.2026, 11:04
Why Belarus needs 10 more fish farms, if the old ones are drowning in debts.
It seems that Lukashenko has decided to add to his countless skills - from historian, hockey player, economist and professional hunter, in case anyone didn't know - the title of professional fisherman. The new plan sounds beautiful: to build 10 modern fish farms in Belarus and flood the country with trout, writes the site "Belarusians and the market".
But if you look carefully at the figures of Belstat and the reports of the operating fish farms, an unpleasant question arises: maybe you should first learn to grow and sell carp and carp normally, and then build a trout empire? Some of the debts will not get out even in 10 years with such fish farming as it is now.
How Lukashenko came up with a new megaproject
But something must be shown to the public to those who watch TV. And so Lukashenko, visiting the Paluzh fish farm in the Mogilev region, got excited about the project of modern trout production. Like Ostap Bender and his New Vasyuki project, Alexander Grigorievich got the idea to replicate trout farming complexes...
The scale is grandiose at once! Not one to test, not two - to bring to profit, but 10 fish farms at once! Because in the Belarusian managerial tradition, if the boss likes a toy, it should be immediately multiplied for budget money.
Wonders of statistics and where has the fish disappeared?
The argument of the authorities is clear: they say that Belarusians eat little fish - the annual consumption of fish in Belarus is about 7-8 kg per person, and Belarusian fish in this volume is about 1.2 kg. This is what statistics tells us. But whether to trust it is a big question. Let's take an example and carefully "watch your hands"!
According to Belstat, 15.4 thousand tons of fish were caught in the reservoirs of Belarus in 2025. Of these, 9.5 thousand tons was the commercial catch. Almost all the commercial catch was given by artificial reservoirs, i.e. ponds - 9 thousand tons. Natural water bodies accounted for only 0.5 thousand tons.
And immediately the question: if all caught 15.4 thousand tons, and the commercial catch - 9.5 thousand tons, where is the remaining 5.9 thousand tons? Who caught them? Maybe it is recreational fishing?
If so, it turns out that ordinary fishermen with fishing rods provided almost a third of the total catch of the country. It's like counting millet in the barns according to the neighbors' stories: it seems to be harvested, but who weighed it is unknown.
But that's not all! Watch how another 1.8 thousand tons of fish dissolved in the report. In the report, Belstat further writes that out of 9.5 thousand tons of fishing catch, fishing organizations sold 9.1 thousand tons of fish.
Calculate without a calculator: 9.5 - 9.1 = 0.4 thousand tons. That is, 400 tons of fish were lost somewhere between catch and realization. And here are the details! Belstat reports that of the 9.1 thousand tons of fish sold:
- 3.5 thousand tons sold to employees and the public;
- 2.1 thousand tons went to trade organizations;
- 2.1 thousand tons were sent for processing.
Add up: 3.5 + 2.1 + 2.1 + 2.1 = 7.7 thousand tons. And 9.1 thousand tons were sold. Hello! Where are the other 1.4 thousand tons of fish?
That brings us to: 400 tons that disappeared between the commercial catch and realization, another 1.4 thousand tons are not explained within the structure of realization. In total - 1.8 thousand tons of fish have gone somewhere...
Trout - as a new "goldfish"
But let's return to the idea of 10 new fish farms for trout farming. Now its consumption in Belarus is estimated at about 5 thousand tons per year, and its own production - about 600 tons.
The new fish farm should give a significant volume: initially about the same amount, and when reaching full capacity - up to 2-3 thousand tons.
One such project can indeed partially cover the domestic demand. But if we build 10 such fish farms, the volume of trout production can grow up to 20-25 thousand tons. And this is where arithmetic begins to spoil the holiday.
If the domestic market consumes about 5 thousand tons, then after the launch of ten complexes the country can get several times more trout than it can eat. We have completely closed imports - fine. But where to go from here? To salt? Freeze? To distribute together with ideological newspapers?
Official hope, of course, will be for export. Mostly to Russia. But Russia itself is actively developing production, and its market no longer looks like an empty showcase, where Belarus will just bring in trout and everyone will cry from happiness.
Belarusian buses, refrigerators, TV sets, cement and amino acids were once supposed to confidently displace competitors. In practice, for some reason the competitors were not afraid.
The price of Lukashenko's idea-fix is 1.5 billion rubles
Investments in the Paluzh farm are estimated at about 150 million rubles. This is not money from a magic pond. These are budget subsidies and a loan from the Development Bank, and part of the loan must also be repaid at the expense of the budget.
If there are 10 such complexes, we get about 1.5 billion rubles, or more than 500 million dollars! And all this before the project has fully proved its commercial efficiency.
It is not even finally known what the cost of marketable fish will be, what the percentage of losses will be, what the real price of Belarusian trout is and whether it will be able to compete not in the report of the state TV, but on the market.
The logic "our trout will surely be cheaper than Norwegian trout" sounds especially good. "For sure" is a great economic category. It can be used to build a business plan, budget, megaproject and then the next commission to find out why the money went and the profit did not come.
The great economist, aka hockey player and, let's put him in the professional fish farmers, forgot that business does not start with the phrase "let's build". It starts with questions: who will buy this fish, at what price, what will be the cost price, what will be the sales market and what will happen if export does not work?
Old fish farms are in losses
If fish farming is so promising, it is interesting for you to know how the existing fish farms live? The basis of Belarusian fish farming is still pond fish. Carp, crucian carp, fathead carp, amur - this is something that farms should have been able to grow long ago and steadily. This is not a space program or microchip production.
To finally understand how Belarusian fish farms "earn", it is enough to open any report. Two of them were randomly taken from the reports: in Brest region, a large fish farm JSC "Fish farm "Loktyshi" in Gantsevichi district and JSC "Fish farm "Tremlya" (Gomel region, Petrikov district).
In 2025, fish farm "Loktyshi" sold 420.8 tons of marketable fish. Revenue from sales amounted to 2857 thousand rubles. The cost of realized production - 2805 thousand rubles, and as a result the loss from realization for 2025 made -255 thousand rubles.
The accounts receivable at the beginning of 2025 made 194 thousand rubles, and accounts payable, drum roll... - 1465 thousand rubles. That is, the enterprise owes relatively little, but the enterprise itself owes 7.5 times more.
Debt to suppliers and contractors - 415 thousand rubles, taxes and fees - 99 thousand rubles, long-term loans - 128 thousand rubles.
The most unpleasant figure in the report of "Loktyshi" - not even a loss, but the depreciation of fixed assets 71.2%. The value of fixed assets as of December 31, 2025 was 62,124 thousand rubles - depreciation of fixed assets - 44,256 thousand rubles.
This is no longer just "modernization is required". It means that the farm operates on a heavily worn-out base. Equipment, facilities, machinery, infrastructure - all this requires modernization.
Modernization requires money, and money in such systems usually comes not from profit, but through loans, state support. Maybe on the basis of the fish farm "Loktyshi", and there are huge areas of ponds, and start trout farming? Or will they steal it?
The second one that caught our eye is JSC "Fish farm "Tremlya". The report is also interesting... According to the results of 2025 - the profit of the fish farm is 82 thousand rubles. And the loss of 54 thousand rubles. How so, there can't be both profit and loss in one bottle, you will say.
May be. And it is explained simply: in reality "Tremlya" worked at a loss, but 136 thousand rubles was the state support. That's what "profit" turned out to be on paper. Without the budget - minus. With the budget - "success".
The main danger is not in the trout, but in the system
And here the question becomes quite acute: if the existing fish farms with carp and other traditional fish can not earn confidently, why the state is sure that expensive trout complexes will automatically become successful?
Because trout is smarter than carp? Because the water in the new project is ideologically correct? If Belarusian trout is more expensive than its competitors, they will not buy it out of respect for the Belarusian vertical.
The development of fish farming in Belarus is necessary in itself. The country really has potential. It is possible to grow more fish, modernize ponds, develop processing, improve logistics, work with trade networks, reduce import dependence.
Carp at least habitually sinks in reports and goes somewhere. Trout will sink and pull even more expensive. Better to sell "Belarusian shrimp," "Belarusian squid and octopus."
But all this requires normal management. The problem is that the economy will never work according to the wishes of some Lukashenko or Konyushenko. A fish does not become profitable from the fact that it was shown to the main "expert" on all issues in the country.
In such a system even a good idea becomes dangerous. Because it starts to be realized not as a business, but as an order.
If Belarusian fish farms can't make money on the usual fish even today, why should we believe that ten new trout complexes will suddenly become an economic miracle? Because Lukashenko took a look and said "we must"?
Forel, of course, is a noble fish. But in the Belarusian model it risks becoming not a product for buyers, but another goldfish for the budget.