Andrei Sannikov: NATO Should Prepare A Response After Lukashenko's Words

• 3.04.2026, 10:36

The future of Europe depends on the victory of Ukraine and free Belarus.

Why did Lukashenko order the military to prepare for war? How should the West react to the dictator's plans? What do the words of the special envoy of US President John Cole about the Belarusian dictator at the "table for bad guys" mean? About this and not only the site Charter97.org talked to the leader of the civil campaign "European Belarus" Andrei Sannikov.

- Lukashenko said that Belarus is "preparing for war" and made it clear that he is no longer talking about any peaceful time. What do the dictator's words mean? Who does he want to go to war with?"

- First of all, Lukashenko is already involved in war. Not only were the first strikes against Ukraine in the full-scale Russian war launched from the territory of Belarus, but today the entire territory of our country is subordinated to Russian military operations. This includes logistics, repair and maintenance of equipment, treatment of wounded Russian soldiers, and constant exercises under the command of the Kremlin. Lukashenko makes statements that he can "join the war" all the time, precisely to veil his participation in the Russian aggression from the first days. However, this time his revelations are a rebroadcast of his communication with Putin, from which it follows that Putin ordered Lukashenko to prepare the army to support the Kremlin's military actions against Ukraine.

- How should the neighboring countries of Belarus react today to such plans of the two dictators?

- We should have started reacting long ago, back in 2009, when the Kremlin and Lukashenko were practicing the scenario of military actions in Europe at the joint maneuvers "Zapad". We should have reacted to our uprising in 2010, when Europe's inaction literally untied the hands of the dictator and his punitive bodies. In 2010, there were all the prerequisites for a peaceful transition of power in Belarus, but Western democracies preferred to promise Lukashenko money if he held more or less fair elections. It is hard to think of a better way to push Lukashenko to repress the opposition.

There would have been no war against Ukraine if Belarus had undergone democratic transformations.

But today... A lot of time has been lost, and therefore we have to proceed not from the possibility of peaceful transformations, but from the logic of waging war against the aggressor. This logic after such statements of Lukashenko requires not only from the neighboring countries, but also from NATO as a whole, to include the territory of Belarus in the Alliance's response plans.

- Not so long ago a video of the speech of the special envoy of the US President John Cole appeared, where he talks about the negotiations with Lukashenko. He said that the Belarusian dictator is afraid of repeating the fate of his Venezuelan counterpart Nicolas Maduro and the Iranian ayatollahs. Cole also said that Lukashenko is behind the bad guys' table, and he's there alone. How do you interpret this statement by Trump's spokesman?"

- I would like to point out that for the first time there is a Western negotiator with Lukashenko who specifically deals with the release of political prisoners. John Cole has already achieved impressive results, moreover, he is quite consistently promoting other topics, which, for example, follows from his talk about tables. I think that against the background of the trial of Maduro, the elimination of the top ayatollahs in Iran, and the US hard line towards Cuba, Cole's words sounded more than convincing.

- Lukashenko himself announced the preparation of a "big deal" with the US. What should Washington pay attention to when negotiating with the Belarusian dictator?

- Statements about a "big deal" between the first economy of the world and the economy destroyed by Lukashenko's policy sound, of course, a bit strange, but some kind of a deal can take place.

The first condition for such a deal, in my opinion, should be the complete absence of political prisoners in Belarus, both officially recognized by human rights activists and hidden, and a complete cessation of repression. The U.S. should realize that Lukashenko is known for the fact that he does not observe agreements, therefore, when preparing any agreements with this power, it is necessary to lay down guarantees of their observance. The most reliable way to achieve this is to legitimize the power in Belarus through elections under international control.

- The war in Iran, Trump's harsh statements about NATO allies, the change in oil prices, which gives Putin the opportunity to continue the war - the situation is changing literally every day. What challenges will Belarusians have to respond to in this turbulent world?

- Today's world is indeed characterized by rapid dynamics of events and even chaos. But chaos does not mean "everything is bad." The complacency of the West has allowed Russia to prepare a war against Ukraine, the outcome of which will determine the future not only of our region, but will affect the entire world. But the war in Ukraine was the second stage, the first was the decomposition of the West by Russia, the erosion of democratic values by throwing in large sums of money to create a favorable corruption climate, bribing officials, strengthening agent networks and so on. This neglect by the West of its core values, which democracies have pledged to protect in all their constitutions, laws, and international obligations, has led to a time when the time for peaceful democratic formations in the world has been lost, and the world dictatorship has not only grown stronger, but has gone on the offensive.

President Trump's statements on NATO are a manifestation of that very crisis of values. That crisis that European states must realize and take responsibility and leadership in restoring democracy, first in Europe itself.

What should we expect in this situation? We have our own state, that is already a lot. After 2020, we have made many friends in the world. This is also in the piggy bank.

Our state is now occupied by the anti-Belarusian regime and may be drawn into the next stage of Russian expansion, which threatens not a hybrid but a real world war.

At the same time, Belarus has been and remains a key state for solving many key problems, especially in our region. And the bright future of Europe depends, of course, on the victory of Ukraine, but also on a free Belarus.