Political Analyst: U.S. And Israel Move Toward Regime Change In Iran

• 3.04.2026, 11:38

Trump has signaled that the pressure will intensify.

US President Donald Trump addressed the nation, declaring a decisive phase of war with Iran. He promised powerful new strikes and signaled that the coming weeks could be pivotal.

What to expect from U.S. and Israeli action against Iran after these statements by Trump?

That's what the website Charter97.org talked to Slovak political scientist and president of the Institute of Social Problems (IVO, Bratislava) Grigory Mesežnikov:

- It seems to me that this military operation will continue, because it is quite obvious that both Israel and the United States seek to bring about regime change. And regime change is possible only if the entire repressive, military, nuclear potential, everything that fuels this regime is destroyed.

The attempts or efforts of the United States (because Israel, of course, is not negotiating with Iran) to somehow force the Iranian Islamist regime to make concessions, as we see, have not yielded results. That is, this regime is resisting. I think it already realizes that the possibilities of its survival are minimal. But nevertheless he assumes that it is possible, because Trump would actually be willing even for some part of this regime to survive. Maybe somehow modified, let's say, according to the Venezuelan version, but it would survive, but this is not happening.

That is why, as it seems to me, Donald Trump has decided to once again make a threat: that everything will be destroyed, everything will be liquidated and, as implied, not only the military, but civilian structures as well.

It is clear that Donald Trump must also take into account domestic political considerations. Still, this war has run into quite strong dissent among the opposition in the US, among the Democratic Party. It seems to me that the U.S. population also does not quite agree with what is happening, and there are also groups in the Republican Party itself that have a problem with this war.

Trump is perceived as the leader of this whole operation, he decides when it is somehow possible to soften the position, and when it can be strengthened. I think that the military operation will continue, and, in principle, we can expect even stronger strikes.

- The Strait of Hormuz remains virtually blocked: is the international coalition led by the US capable of unblocking it in a short period of time, and what military tools can be used to achieve this?

- Indeed, in this respect, the Islamist regime has one last opportunity left to blackmail the whole world that the strait will be blocked. Oil prices, energy prices will rise, and it will cost the United States itself more. This may cause discontent in the United States itself. It is clear that this may also happen in European countries, which have ambiguous attitudes towards this war, although there are, of course, different positions. But nevertheless, I think the general mood in Europe is that it would be better if this war could be avoided. That's the mood among our EU and NATO allies.

How will the Strait of Hormuz be unblocked? Here I just find what the open sources say: some kind of limited land operation is possible, let's say occupation of some islands, not necessarily Harga, there are two other islands in this strait. And they are of strategic importance in the local sense. If, say, the United States or Israel sent ground forces there (although I have a hard time imagining Israel sending troops there), they would have a better opportunity to repel Iranian attempts to blockade the strait.

In addition, there could also be an increase in some decisive action, like missile and bomb strikes against those military units in Iran that enforce the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As far as I understand, the threat to shipping comes mainly from drones. So there is a task for the allies to stop the supply of drones into that territory. That is to destroy the drones that are there, to destroy the supply, so that they are not transported or produced.

With regard to Iranian production of drones, it is clear that the allies have already eliminated a significant part of the production facilities.

It is difficult for me to really understand specifically how the Strait can be unblocked. Apparently, the Iranian regime has already clearly shown that this is the last opportunity for it to achieve something, and of course it will not give up. This is the only opportunity for it to somehow resolve the situation in such a way that this regime will survive and that it will be possible to end the war without absolutely catastrophic destruction of the Iranian economy.

But will the Islamist regime succeed or not? I think probably not, because it is stuck in its positions, which are unacceptable neither for America nor for Israel.

- Trump is talking about a horizon of 2-3 weeks - how realistic is such a timeframe for the end of the conflict and what scenario of the war's finale now looks the most likely?

- Here one should know whether this speech of Trump was prepared with his advisers, including those from the military establishment, or whether he prepared it himself. As for the timeline, he often has these political statements where he talks about "two or three days," or says "we'll get it done right away," but it doesn't happen. But I hope that nevertheless this statement of his was prepared together with his inner circle.

Surely there are people there who understand military issues. And I guess it could be a really realistic assessment. On timelines, Trump always has inconsistencies. And he talks about days, and weeks, and months, and it often doesn't work out. In terms of timelines, it is clear that there are operations that the United States has been able to complete as scheduled. In Venezuela, for example. But there, in principle, it was only a question of arresting a limited number of people, let's say.

What could be the scenario for the end of the conflict? I think that the maximum option is to prepare conditions for the overthrow of the regime with the help of internal resistance.

People in Iran now, understandably, do not and cannot take to the streets. Because the country is now in a state of war, there are no calls, which were issued even before this operation, for people to take to the streets. There is also a factor of repressiveness of the regime, the question is to what extent this regime is able to suppress mass demonstrations of citizens in the same way. Now there is information that 33,000 civilians have died as a result of the suppression of protests. These are, of course, simply prohibitive figures. Nor does it create the conditions for people in Iran to protest without fear of being brutally persecuted by the regime.

Nevertheless, it seems to me that America and Israel want to weaken this regime to such an extent that the possibility of its survival is minimal. They cannot, understandably, send troops into Iran to overthrow this regime directly. But they can create the right conditions for this regime to disappear forever.