Putin's "ultimatum" On Donbass Is Not Believed Even In Russia

• 5.04.2026, 13:34

The media explained the reason.

Moscow continues to issue ultimatums to Kiev, insisting on the transfer of Donbass and at the same time declaring its readiness to "bring the operation to an end" in case of refusal. At the same time, the current situation on the front does not confirm the existence of conditions for the realization of such threats in the near future, the Wiadomosci Polske writes.

Despite the toughness of the statements, even inside Russia they are perceived ambiguously. Confidence in the possibility of a rapid and large-scale offensive is shared only by the most radical propagandists. In the broader expert and public field, there is a growing understanding that the gap between official rhetoric and real military capabilities remains significant, the publication says.

Russian propaganda line is still based on the assertion that if Ukraine refuses to withdraw its troops from Donbass, Moscow is capable of organizing an offensive that would lead to a turning point in the situation. However, even supporters of this position acknowledge the existence of systemic limitations, including the need for additional mobilization and existing problems in the management and supply of the army, the publication writes.

A similar practice of threats from the Russian leadership has been used before, when tough statements accompanied periods requiring consolidation of the domestic audience. In such cases, the emphasis on external threats becomes a way to manage the public mood inside the country, the author of the material notes.

Temps of advancement

According to the publication, the pace of advancement of the Russians remains low and localized. The fighting is concentrated in certain areas, while a significant part of the contact line remains relatively stable. At the current intensity of operations, achieving the stated objectives would take a long time. The length of the line of contact is hundreds of kilometers, which makes it impossible to exert even pressure on the entire Donbass area with the available resources. As a result, the Russians are concentrating their efforts only in certain areas.

Russian losses

According to the publication, casualties remain a significant factor. According to rough estimates by Western agencies and the Ukrainian AFU General Staff, the Russians lose about a thousand people dead, wounded or missing every day. Total losses during the conflict are estimated at more than 1.2 million servicemen.

Tactics of combat operations

This situation, the piece argues, is largely due to the tactics of combat operations used, which involve the active use of infantry supported by artillery and aviation. The attacks involve units of various levels of training, including mobilized and contract personnel, which leads to high intensity of fighting and significant rotation of personnel with limited effectiveness of advancement.

Defense and security expenditures

Financial aspect of the issue also has a significant impact on the intensity of fighting. Defense and security expenditures occupy a significant share of the RF state budget, to which indirect military expenditures are added. In aggregate, this forms a high level of budgetary burden comparable to historically large military expenditures. At the same time, the revenue base remains dependent on the export of raw materials, which makes it sensitive to external restrictions and fluctuations in world prices. In the long term, maintaining the current level of spending may require reallocation of funds within the economy or increasing the debt burden, the publication said.

Mobilization resource

A separate constraint is related to human resource. The Russian authorities avoid conducting a new large-scale mobilization, given the potential social consequences. The previous mobilization campaign was accompanied by rising social tensions and emigration processes, which became a deterrent to a repeat of such measures.

In its place, Russia is using a contract recruitment model and expanded recruitment activity among various population groups, from the unemployed to students and employees of government agencies. In some cases, there are reports of various forms of pressure in signing contracts and recruiting citizens of other countries who want to obtain residence permits in Russia, the publication writes.

Nevertheless, the current rate of replenishment of personnel does not allow to compensate for losses in the amounts necessary to fulfill the threats of the Russian dictator. As a result, Russia is able to maintain the current level of combat operations, but is limited in its ability for a large-scale offensive operation without additional decisions, the publication says.